Bitcoin's Weekly Close Below $87,500 Mirrors Past Bear Markets
Bitcoin closed its weekly candle on Sunday at $76,931, a decisive break below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA) located near $87,500. This marks the first time the asset has lost this key long-term support level since October 2023, raising concerns that a multi-month corrective period has begun.
Historical analysis shows that extended periods below the 100-week SMA are characteristic of bear market accumulation phases, not swift recoveries. In 2022, Bitcoin spent 532 days below this moving average following the FTX collapse. Similarly, the 2018-2019 bear market bottom saw BTC trade below the level for 182 days, while the 2014-2015 cycle lasted 357 days. These precedents suggest that time, rather than a rapid price rebound, will be the critical factor in forming a new market bottom.
$120B in Volume Creates Major Resistance at $85,000
The path to recovery is now obstructed by a significant wall of supply. More than $120 billion in spot volume was traded between $85,000 and $95,000 during the fourth quarter of 2025, leaving a large cohort of buyers underwater at current prices near $78,000. Data from CryptoQuant shows the realized price for traders who bought in the last one to three months is $91,500, indicating they are holding significant unrealized losses. Any rally toward the $85,000 level is likely to be met with strong selling pressure as these holders seek to exit their positions at or near breakeven.
Reinforcing this bearish outlook, the USDT dominance chart, which tracks the stablecoin's market share, posted a weekly close above 7.2%. A reading above 6.7% has historically confirmed bear market conditions, and this is its first such breakout in over two and a half years, signaling a flight to safety away from risk assets.
Price Fractal Points to Potential Retest of $45,000
Bitcoin's current weekly price structure bears a striking resemblance to a fractal from the 2022 market dip. That pattern was characterized by lower highs, a loss of the 100-week SMA, and a failed recovery attempt that preceded a much deeper correction. If this fractal plays out, it suggests downside risk extends toward the $40,000 to $45,000 range, an established demand zone from previous cycles. While fractals are not predictive guarantees, the parallel structure underscores the elevated risk until Bitcoin can decisively reclaim the 100-week SMA.
