Bitcoin breaks halving-cycle playbook with 2 straight quarterly losses

Bitcoin fell 30% in the first half of 2026 to near $59,500, closing back-to-back quarterly losses for only the third time in its history.

"Bitcoin is starting to show the first clear sign of a deeper market clean-up," I. Moreno, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said in a June 28 research note.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.06 billion in net outflows in June, the highest monthly total since the products launched in January 2024, per SoSoValue data. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $3.3 billion, or 75%, of the monthly total. Year-to-date, ETF outflows stand at approximately $5 billion.

The $60,000 level has flipped from support to resistance, and traders are watching the $54,000-to-$64,000 cost-basis range as the next critical zone. A break below that band could accelerate selling, while a reclaim of $60,000 with volume would signal the first credible recovery attempt.

What the Halving Cycle Says Now

Bitcoin's April 2024 halving typically sets up a bullish post-halving year, but 2026 has broken that pattern. Q1 fell 22% — the worst first quarter since 2018 — and Q2 dropped another 13%, bringing the total first-half decline to roughly 30% from the Jan. 1 open of $87,500. The only other times Bitcoin opened a year with two consecutive quarterly losses were 2014 and 2022, both of which preceded prolonged bear markets.

The structural differences matter. In 2022, the decline was catalyzed by ecosystem collapses — Terra/LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and FTX — each triggering forced selling and contagion. In 2026, the selloff has been driven primarily by macro factors: Federal Reserve hawkishness under Chair Kevin Warsh, a strong dollar, and institutional risk-off positioning visible through the ETF outflow data. Markets are currently pricing an 80% probability of a December rate hike, according to CME FedWatch data.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has become a bellwether for the pressure. Its stock has fallen 45% year-to-date, and the company disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 Bitcoin — its first sale since December 2022. The amount was small relative to its 580,000-plus BTC holdings, but the signal was notable given that Strategy's average cost basis sits at $75,699 per coin, well above the current spot price.

On-Chain Signals and the Path Forward

Despite the bearish price action, several on-chain indicators are flashing early recovery signals. CryptoQuant's UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio, which measures how broadly profitable the market's unspent transaction outputs are, has fallen to 5.9 — its lowest level since 2022. Moreno called this "Bitcoin's first bottoming flag" of the current bear market, though he cautioned that the market may still need to absorb more stress before the bearish phase fully exhausts itself.

Relative strength index data across multiple timeframes is also printing bullish divergences that were absent from previous dips in 2026. Trader and commentator Heisenberg noted on X that the latest macro low shows a divergence pattern similar to those that preceded bottoms in prior cycles. "The last two recent drops had no RSI divergences... UNTIL NOW," they wrote.

The Fear and Greed Index sits at 12, deep in "Extreme Fear" territory — a zone that has historically preceded recoveries by three to six months when combined with sustained whale accumulation. Glassnode data shows wallets holding 1,000-plus Bitcoin have been quietly accumulating during this drawdown, mirroring patterns seen in late 2022 and early 2023.

July historically offers relief after weak Junes. CoinGlass data shows that since 2013, July has been green following a red June in all but three instances. The key macro catalysts this week include the ISM Manufacturing PMI report on Wednesday and the June nonfarm payrolls release on July 2 — both of which could shift the rate outlook and, by extension, Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.