Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's $107,000 peak buyers are realizing losses in a pattern that has marked every major bear-market bottom since 2018.
Bitcoin investors who bought near the $107,000 peak are realizing losses at a pace that historically precedes bear-market bottoms, Glassnode data show.
"When the 30-day moving average of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market," Cryptovizart, lead research analyst at Glassnode, said.
Realized losses from the cohort of holders who bought Bitcoin one to two years ago recently surpassed $75 million on a 30-day rolling basis before beginning to reverse — a pattern that preceded recoveries during the 2018, 2020 and 2022 bear-market lows. Long-term holders accounted for roughly 43% of total on-chain losses, with daily loss realization peaking at $280 million, the highest since December 2022, according to Glassnode.
The $69,000 level has become the critical battleground. It represents the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders and coincides with Bitcoin's November 2021 all-time high. A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact, with the realized price near $53,000 to $55,000 as the next potential floor.
Bitcoin has now spent approximately five months trading below the True Market Mean of $76,600 to $79,000, making this one of the longest sustained periods of deep-value trading in its history. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has remained below 1.0, indicating that losses are outpacing profits on a realized basis. Historical data show these periods typically last more than six months before meaningful recovery signals emerge.
The buyers who accumulated positions between $107,000 and $118,000 during Bitcoin's run to over $126,000 in 2025 are sitting on substantial unrealized losses. Every wave of capitulation from that cohort brings the market closer to exhausting its available sellers, Glassnode said.
If the $69,000 level fails to hold, the realized price near $53,000 to $55,000 — representing the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin on the network — becomes the next logical area where the market could find a floor. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin briefly traded below its realized price before staging the recovery that ultimately carried it past $100,000.
For traders monitoring the $69,000 level, the key metric is whether realized losses begin declining from their peaks without Bitcoin making new lows. The cohort that bought between $107,000 and $118,000 is deep underwater, and each capitulation wave reduces the pool of remaining sellers.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
