Bettors favor Anthropic over OpenAI in IPO race at 73% odds

Prediction markets now give Anthropic a 73% chance of reaching public markets before OpenAI, as the AI rival's IPO timeline slips amid market volatility.

Bettors on Polymarket have flipped the AI IPO race, pricing Anthropic at 73% odds to list before OpenAI after the ChatGPT maker signaled it may delay its debut to 2027, according to the prediction market contract.

"The repricing tracks what each company has actually done — one is filing and pressing ahead, the other is filing and looking for the exit," a trader active on the Polymarket contract said.

Anthropic confidentially filed with the SEC on June 1 for a debut expected late this year, days after raising funds at a $965 billion valuation that overtook OpenAI's private mark for the first time. OpenAI filed its confidential paperwork a week later but is now leaning toward delaying its listing, unnamed sources told the New York Times, as advisers warned that a public float may struggle for demand while tech shares slide. Chief Executive Sam Altman has insisted on a $1 trillion valuation, calling any cut a "nonstarter," per the report.

The reversal carries billions in consequences. OpenAI, valued at $852 billion in its most recent round, reported roughly $13 billion in revenue last year against $21 billion in net losses, with $600 billion in projected spending on compute and hardware through 2030. Anthropic, by contrast, has told investors it expects to reach breakeven by 2028 — earlier than its larger rival — despite still burning billions annually.

The caution has a proximate cause. SpaceX listed on June 12 in the largest debut on record, raising more than $85 billion and pushing its valuation to $2.77 trillion. The stock then reversed sharply, closing at $153 on Thursday after topping $225 last week, wiping out Elon Musk's trillionaire status. A wobble that severe at the front of the queue has made every AI company behind it think twice.

The Polymarket contract, which has $188,135 riding on it and resolves at the end of 2027, shows Anthropic's probability climbing 23 points from earlier levels. The chart briefly touched 80% in early June before settling in the high 60s, then rising again to 73%. OpenAI's odds sit at 30 cents on the dollar.

The IPO pipeline is crowded

Anthropic and OpenAI are not alone. A wave of tech companies including Strava, Discord, Kraken and smart-ring maker Oura filed confidentially earlier this year. But the AI pair commands the most attention — and the most skepticism about whether their valuations can hold.

OpenAI is hunting for new revenue streams, experimenting with ads inside ChatGPT and e-commerce tie-ups with Shopify and Stripe, while paring back money-losing ventures including its Sora video app. Anthropic has staked its brand on the opposite approach, running Super Bowl ads this year with the tagline "Ads are coming to AI. But not to Claude" — a direct jab at OpenAI's ad strategy.

What the odds mean for investors

The Polymarket pricing reflects a market that sees first-mover advantage as real but fleeting. Anthropic, with a smaller user base but a stronger enterprise footprint, may find it easier to navigate public market scrutiny than OpenAI, which must convince investors it can monetize 800 million users while spending $600 billion on infrastructure. If Anthropic lists first, it could set the valuation benchmark that OpenAI must then beat — or accept a discount.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.