"Altseason" Mentions Collapse to a Two-Year Low
Social media chatter surrounding a potential "altseason" has evaporated, falling to its lowest level in at least two years, according to data from analytics firm Santiment. This term, often a proxy for retail investor greed, has historically served as a potent contrarian indicator. Previous periods of intense social media discussion about an altseason have consistently aligned with local market tops, while phases of silence, like the current one, have often preceded significant price recoveries. The correlation is particularly notable with assets like Dogecoin, where peaks in chatter have marked price tops and lulls have preceded rallies.
Major Altcoins Suffer Losses Exceeding 70%
The current retail apathy is a direct result of severe market underperformance. Since October's crash, major altcoins have experienced substantial drawdowns. Dogecoin has fallen approximately 75% from its cycle high, while Solana has shed over 60% and Cardano has lost more than 70%. This downturn has been driven by capital rotating out of speculative assets and into Bitcoin and stablecoins. Other sentiment indicators corroborate this exhaustion, with the Coinbase Premium Index remaining negative for over 40 consecutive days through February, signaling a lack of U.S. retail demand.
Bitcoin Whales Accumulate as Retail Capitulates
Beneath the surface of retail despair, on-chain activity reveals a diverging trend. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding 100 or more BTC approached 20,000 for the first time in late February, indicating that large holders were accumulating assets during the price decline. While this accumulation by sophisticated investors points to underlying strength, it does not guarantee an immediate rally. Any significant recovery in the altcoin market likely depends on Bitcoin's price stabilizing, a factor currently complicated by broader financial market pressures stemming from the Iran conflict.
