ADP private hiring slows to 15,000 per week, fifth straight decline

U.S. private employers added just 15,000 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ending July 11, the weakest reading in the ADP National Employment Report's weekly series, as hiring slowed for a fifth consecutive period.

"These preliminary estimates reflect a continued deceleration in private-sector hiring," ADP Research said in a statement Tuesday. The figures, produced in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, are seasonally adjusted and carry a two-week lag to allow for more complete data collection.

The four-week moving average has fallen steadily from 40,750 in early May, when the labor market was still absorbing post-pandemic adjustments. The latest reading of 15,000 marks a 63% decline from the 40,750 average recorded for the week ending May 2. Even the prior week's revised figure of 16,250 was the second-lowest in the series. The trajectory shows no sign of stabilizing: the moving average has dropped in each of the past five weekly releases, from 30,750 in early June to 24,250 in mid-June to 21,000 in late June.

The sustained slowdown in private hiring raises the stakes for the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting. With the labor market showing clear signs of softening, economists will watch the official nonfarm payrolls report for confirmation. A continued deceleration could strengthen the case for rate cuts as early as September, though the Fed has signaled it needs more data before shifting its stance. The last time the labor market decelerated this sharply was in mid-2023, when the Fed's tightening cycle was nearing its peak and monthly payrolls fell from an average of 300,000 to below 150,000 over a three-month period.

The ADP data captures a broad cross-section of U.S. private employers and is often viewed as a precursor to the Labor Department's monthly employment report. The weekly NER Pulse, which publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, provides a high-frequency snapshot of labor market trends that the monthly report cannot capture. The data is preliminary and subject to revision as new information is incorporated.

The deceleration has been broad-based. From the week ending May 2 through July 11, the four-week moving average dropped from 40,750 to 15,000 — a decline of more than 25,000 jobs per week over roughly two months. The pace of hiring in the most recent period is less than half the 30,750 average recorded as recently as early June. Even the 26,500 average for the week ending May 30 now looks elevated compared with current levels.

The weakening trend in U.S. employment comes against a backdrop of global labor market divergence. In the UK, payrolled employees fell by 85,000 between May 2025 and May 2026, according to HMRC data, though the month-over-month change was essentially flat at plus 3,000. Meanwhile, the yen's slide past 163 per dollar has raised the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities, adding another layer of complexity to the global macro picture. The European Central Bank, which meets July 23, is widely expected to hold rates steady after June's hike, though the deteriorating growth outlook could shift the calculus for its September meeting.

For the Fed, the ADP numbers add to a growing body of evidence that the labor market is cooling after more than two years of restrictive policy. The central bank's preferred measure — the monthly nonfarm payrolls report — has averaged roughly 200,000 jobs per month over the past year, but the weekly ADP data suggests the trend may be losing momentum more quickly than anticipated. If confirmed by the official data, the slowdown would give the Fed cover to begin easing as soon as its September meeting, with OIS markets currently pricing a 45% probability of a cut by then. A sustained reading below 20,000 in the ADP weekly data would likely push that probability above 60%, according to historical correlations between the two series.

The implications extend beyond monetary policy. A weakening labor market weighs on consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Lower hiring also reduces wage pressure, which could help bring services inflation down — a key variable the Fed has been watching closely. The combination of cooling employment and moderating inflation would create the conditions for a policy pivot, though the timing remains uncertain.

The next NER Pulse release is scheduled for Aug. 11, followed by the monthly ADP National Employment Report, which will provide a more comprehensive picture of July hiring across sectors and firm sizes.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.