25 ships cross Strait of Hormuz as US denies escort restart

Conflicting accounts from Washington and Tehran leave the Strait of Hormuz's status unresolved as commercial shipping remains far below normal levels.

A Greek supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude crossed the Strait of Hormuz under US Navy guidance, but Central Command denied restarting escort operations, deepening uncertainty over the waterway's security.

"The low crossing count shows that the absence of fresh attacks has not translated into a normalization of traffic," said Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at MarineTraffic. "Vessel movement remains narrow, route-dependent and heavily conditioned by Iranian clearance practices."

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said 25 vessels passed through the strait in the past 24 hours under its coordination, while independent ship-tracking data showed only 5 crossings on Tuesday. Crude futures fell more than 4% to about $92 a barrel on weekend ceasefire hopes, though Drewry's World Container Index rose 6% to $2,712 per 40-foot container as shipping costs continued to climb. Container rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam surged 15% to $2,773 per 40-foot container, while China-to-Mediterranean cargo volumes jumped 48% in the two weeks through mid-May to 82,372 TEUs, according to Vizion data.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil trade, and any sustained disruption threatens to push energy prices higher, widen shipping insurance premiums, and add to inflationary pressures across supply chains still adjusting from the pandemic-era shock. Even if a ceasefire holds, analysts say a return to pre-crisis shipping volumes could take months.

Conflicting Signals From Washington and Tehran

The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that US military officials said the Navy guided a Greek supertanker — stranded in the Persian Gulf since March — through the strait off the Omani coast, with plans to assist more than 10 additional vessels in the coming days. The report drew immediate parallels to "Project Freedom," a US-led escort initiative launched in early May that was suspended within 48 hours after Saudi Arabia refused to allow US use of its bases and airspace.

US Central Command pushed back, calling the report "false" and saying the Navy had not resumed escort operations. "Project Freedom has not resumed," a spokesperson said, adding that US forces maintain only routine communication with regional vessels. The denial underscores Washington's delicate position: it wants to prevent a full collapse of energy transit through the strait without committing to a formal military escort mission that could escalate tensions with Iran.

Oil Markets Price a Fragile Ceasefire

Brent crude has shed more than 4% since the weekend as markets priced in the possibility of a US-Iran agreement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday the strait "must be opened for unrestricted navigation one way or the other," while Iran's foreign ministry said it is "not seeking to collect tolls" but may charge fees for navigation services.

The last major disruption to Hormuz shipping occurred in 2019, when a series of tanker attacks and the US shootdown of an Iranian drone pushed Brent above $75 a barrel and sent shipping insurance premiums soaring tenfold. Current conditions — with US airstrikes into southern Iran and Iranian Revolutionary Guard vessels still patrolling key chokepoints — suggest the risk premium has not fully dissipated.

MarineTraffic data shows the two confirmed crossings on Monday both used the "Larak Corridor," a route controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that hugs the Iranian coastline. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said vessels are bunching near the Persian Gulf side of the strait, waiting for a reopening that could trigger a rush of departures and subsequent congestion at Far East ports.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.