24 vessels transit Hormuz as oil shipping recovers

Twenty-four vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on June 29, the highest daily count since the U.S.-Iran war began, signaling continued recovery in oil shipping through the critical chokepoint.

Twenty-four oil tankers and cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on June 29, the latest sign that shipping through the critical energy chokepoint is recovering after the U.S. and Iran agreed to reopen the waterway.

"Until there is a more concrete set of guidelines on safe navigation, people are going to be very reticent to go through," said Tim Huxley, chief executive officer of Mandarin Shipping, which manages 50 vessels globally.

The 24 crossings tracked by Kepler follow a broader recovery: 125 transits were recorded between June 15 and June 21, the highest weekly total since the war began Feb. 28, according to MarineTraffic and Kpler data. On June 24, crossings hit 62 vessels, the highest single-day count since the conflict started, though still only 53 percent of traffic on the same day last year. Brent crude traded near $74 a barrel, down from a high of more than $114 in early May.

The recovery remains fragile. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck the Ever Lovely container ship on June 25, the first attack on a cargo vessel since the cease-fire, halting a United Nations-led evacuation plan for hundreds of stranded ships. War-risk insurance premiums have surged to more than 0.7 percent of hull value per transit from 0.05 percent before the conflict, according to Han Shen Lin, China country director at The Asia Group.

The recovery in shipping has been uneven. While tankers carrying Kuwaiti and Emirati crude have resumed exports, Saudi Arabia has largely kept its crude flowing through the Red Sea port of Yanbu rather than the gulf, Aristidis Alafouzos, chief executive officer of Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp, said. The absence of Saudi volumes from the gulf shows the lingering uncertainty about the waterway's safety.

Two competing transit regimes have emerged. Iran's Revolutionary Guard requires all ships to use a northern route under its control and comply with Iranian routing instructions. The U.S. and Oman back a separate southern corridor through Omani waters, with the U.S. Navy providing oversight. The standard pre-war commercial lane remains closed because of mines, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center.

Recovery Tempered by Insurance and Safety Risks

The cost of transiting the strait has risen sharply. War-risk premiums have climbed to more than 0.7 percent of hull value from 0.05 percent before the conflict, a level that Han described as a serious business model stress test. Maersk still has five vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf, and Hapag-Lloyd said it will only sail through the strait when it is safe to do so.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels last week to 412.1 million barrels, 7 percent below the five-year average, according to the Energy Information Administration. Despite the draw, oil prices fell as traders focused on easing Middle East supply risks, with Brent crude declining to near $74 a barrel from a war-time peak above $114 in early May.

The 60-day truce window limits the recovery timeline. If negotiations for a permanent agreement stall, shipping could again be disrupted. The next milestone is the Aug. 21 expiration of a temporary U.S. Treasury license that has eased compliance uncertainty around approved Hormuz transits.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.