Clarity Act odds drop to 27.5% as SEC readies crypto rules

The Clarity Act's odds of passing in 2026 fell to 27.5% on prediction markets after SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency is prepared to establish crypto regulations on its own if Congress remains deadlocked.

"We need the certainty of a statute that will help future-proof so that we have clear direction to go forward," Atkins said in an interview, adding that the SEC is "ready, willing and able" to act under its existing powers.

The bill passed the House 294-134 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May, but still needs 60 votes on the Senate floor. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has suggested the bill may not pass before lawmakers depart for summer recess, and Sen. Cynthia Lummis warned that missing the Aug. 7 deadline could effectively delay the legislation until 2027.

For holders of Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, the outcome carries real financial weight. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC on July 21 that the Clarity Act had reached the "one-yard line," and its passage would give institutional allocators the legal cover to deploy capital into asset tokenization hubs — potentially ending the crypto bear market within a quarter of enactment. All three networks are hubs for the tokenization segments that institutions are currently prioritizing.

Why the statute matters beyond the SEC-CFTC guidance

On March 17, the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission jointly classified Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and a dozen other cryptoassets as digital commodities rather than securities, placing them under the lighter-touch CFTC regime. But that joint ruling was interpretive guidance, not law — a future set of regulators could rewrite it with a memo.

Written into statute, the same classifications become durable rules that financial companies can plan around, allowing them to commit significantly more capital than they would otherwise. For Coinbase, there is also reputational capital at stake: Armstrong has been a vocal advocate for the bill's provisions, and its passage would give the exchange direct influence on future industry legislation.

The SEC's fallback plan

Atkins' comments mark a shift from the SEC's earlier enforcement-driven approach. The initiative, informally called "Regulation Crypto," would see the agency publish formal rules covering key areas of the crypto market rather than relying on lawsuits. According to the SEC's current agenda, the framework could include market structure rules, custody standards, and disclosure requirements for digital asset issuers.

The logjam preventing the Clarity Act's passage is not the market structure provisions — those are largely uncontroversial. The sticking point is a package of ethics rules aimed at government officials, including the president, that has been bundled with the legislation.

With Congress now in August recess, the crypto majors will most likely grind sideways into the fall when the bill gets taken up again — assuming it does. If the SEC proceeds with its own rulemaking instead, the timeline shifts to draft rules later this year, with a full framework potentially taking 12 to 18 months to finalize. For exchanges and token issuers, the difference between a statutory framework and agency rulemaking is the difference between planning around permanent law versus rules that could be reversed by the next administration.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.