Bitcoin's 24% gain flipped CryptoQuant's Bull Score to its most bullish since October 2025, but the $80,000 wall and Friday's Fed speech decide September's direction.
뒤로
Bitcoin up 24% to $79K as model forecasts $81,319 September target
Bitcoin gained 24% to $79,130 this week, its largest weekly advance in three years, with a CryptoSlate model targeting $81,319 by Sept. 29.
"The market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said. "Bitcoin's price still has to cross above its 365-day moving average ($83,000 today) for the bull market to be officially confirmed."
US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.92 billion last week, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025, with BlackRock's IBIT absorbing $1.3 billion of the haul. More than $4.3 billion in short positions were liquidated during the rally, while CryptoQuant's Bull Score surged from 30 to 80 in a single week — the fastest reversal in a year.
The $80,000 psychological level remains the key test. A decisive close above $79,500 opens the path toward $84,000, with $89,000 as the stretch target. Support sits at $75,000 to $76,000. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his Jackson Hole keynote Friday, with futures pricing a 36 percent chance of a September rate hike.
The rally traces to a macro trigger rather than crypto-native news. The US Treasury confirmed it will double long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9, easing yields and pushing capital back into risk assets. A White House meeting with Coinbase and Robinhood leadership added political fuel, and Trump's Bitcoin purchase hint suggested Washington may buy BTC directly.
The $80,000 Wall and What's Behind It
The demand side showed up in force. Aug. 20 alone brought $606.3 million in single-day ETF inflows, the largest in over three months. But the prior week saw nearly $390 million in outflows, and roughly $2.9 billion has drained from the funds in 2026 despite the recent surge. One strong week repairs confidence, not the full year.
On-chain data shows the market is stretched. Trader unrealized profit margins spiked to 20.5 percent, the highest since June 2025, while whales realized a record $614 million in profits on Aug. 20. Exchange inflows for BTC, Ethereum, and XRP have jumped, a pattern that often precedes selling pressure.
August has historically been one of Bitcoin's weakest months — between 2013 and 2025, BTC closed August higher only four times out of thirteen, with a median return of negative 6.99 percent. The current month's 26 percent gain would be the best August since 2017, when Bitcoin gained 65 percent before going on to nearly touch $20,000 by mid-December.
What Friday Decides
Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chair on Friday, with futures pricing a September rate hike at 36 percent. The entire rally is a bet on liquidity, and Warsh's first FOMC meeting erased $2 trillion from markets. His Wyoming speech will either bless the current move or pull the punch bowl away.
The CryptoSlate model's median forecast of $81,319 by Sept. 29 assumes the $80,000 resistance breaks. A break in ETF inflows would test that assumption, with support at $75,000 to $76,000 the first line of defense.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin gains 24% as CryptoSlate price prediction model maps a volatile September[2] Bitmine Rises 4% as ETH Holdings Near 5% of Supply, Circle Internet Group Surges...[3] Bitcoin just had its best August since 2017, here is what history says comes...[4] Fastest Bitcoin Bull Flip in a Year Has One $83,000 Problem, Analyst Says[5] Bitcoin Is Knocking on $80K After Its Best Week in Three Years. Friday Decides...
