Bitcoin profit-taking nears exhaustion as $486.8M ETF inflows return

Bitcoin held near $64,231 on Aug. 19 as $486.8 million of spot ETF inflows returned after Bitfinex flagged exhausted profit-taking supply.

Bitfinex analysts said in a market note that spending cohorts hold almost no profitable supply left to sell, a condition that historically reduces sell pressure. Renewed demand helped lift Bitcoin, the exchange said, though repeated pushes above $65,000 have not produced a daily close above that band since July.

Farside data showed $297.5 million of net inflows on Aug. 17 and $189.3 million on Aug. 18, partly reversing the $385.2 million in outflows during the week ending Aug. 14. Bitcoin traded at $64,231 with a 24-hour gain of 0.2 percent, a market cap of $1.29 trillion and 24-hour volume of $16.5 billion, per CoinGecko.

The exhaustion of profitable supply aligns with VanEck's Aug. 18 assessment that Bitcoin may be approaching an accumulation phase. Eight of the asset manager's 12 capitulation indicators were active as of Aug. 12, with long-term holder supply falling 356,534 BTC to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1 percent of circulating supply.

Profit-taking supply thins as ETF demand returns

Bitfinex's reading rests on on-chain cohorts that have spent coins at a loss or near breakeven, leaving fewer holders able to sell at current prices. VanEck separately noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs absorbed $663 million over the 30 days through mid-August, while realized volatility declined to 27.2 percent.

VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle than the 78 percent to 94 percent drawdowns of earlier bear markets, citing institutional ownership and spot ETP demand. Bitcoin remains about 49 percent below its October 2025 peak.

$65,000 band is the next test

Bitcoin's 24-hour range spanned $64,014 to $64,946, with the $65,000 level acting as resistance and the 200-day moving average sitting above spot. A sustained daily close above the band, supported by continued ETF inflows and stabilization in long-term holdings, would strengthen the accumulation case. Renewed distribution or fund outflows would weaken it.

The period from September through November provides the next test of VanEck's cycle framework, which projects a turning point if current patterns hold.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.