Bitcoin nears $83,000 as CryptoQuant declares new bull market

Bitcoin traded near $80,244 at 11:00 UTC Wednesday, up 14.3% over the past week, within $3,000 of the $83,000 level CryptoQuant says confirms a new bull market.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 in a single week, its most bullish reading since October 2025 when Bitcoin traded at $124,000, the analytics firm said in an Aug. 25 report.

Eight of the firm's 10 valuation metrics now register as bullish. Apparent spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December, and spot and perpetual futures demand have turned positive together for the first time since early October 2025.

Confirmation requires a daily close above Bitcoin's 365-day moving average near $83,000. Glassnode maps the same band, placing every overhead structure between $81,000 and $86,000, with its own confirmation marker at a settled close beyond $83,300.

The $83,000 wall and the profit-taking counterweight

Glassnode said the first self-custody cost-basis shelf begins at $80,800, leaving the price just below it. Dealer gamma turns negative at $82,300, and a surviving cluster of short liquidation levels extends to $86,000. Long-term holder supply fills the $83,000 to $86,000 band.

CryptoQuant attributed the rally to two macro drivers: the US Treasury's plan to double long-term government bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9, and President Trump's remarks suggesting the US government may consider purchasing Bitcoin. The move also triggered the largest BTC short squeeze on record, according to Altcoin Daily, with a wave of liquidations forcing bearish traders to close positions as prices accelerated.

Not all holders are waiting for the test. Long-term holders have started distributing, with their monthly supply average turning net negative at minus 21,000 BTC, reversing a peak of plus 286,000 BTC in early June, according to analyst Darkfost. Weekly average net profits hit a 2026 record, with close to $1 billion booked over the past seven days, driven mainly by short-term holders.

CryptoQuant flagged signs of strain. Trader unrealized profit sits at 20.5%, the highest since June 2025, and whales realized a record $614 million in profits on Aug. 20. Santiment data shows weighted sentiment turned negative Wednesday for the first time since the rally began. Short-term holders realized $1.2 billion in gains during the Aug. 20-22 window. Exchange inflows surged: Bitcoin deposits approached 53,000 BTC, the largest volume since June 5, while ETH deposits climbed to 1.7 million ETH and XRP whale deposits reached 460 million XRP.

Analysts split on confirmation

Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton said Bitcoin's short-term momentum is "very strong" and the move has not yet pushed the crypto into overbought territory. "We have what looks to be a base breakout underway," Stockton said on CNBC's The Exchange on Aug. 25. Stockton had turned bullish when Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Aug. 17, shortly before the crypto surged more than 25%.

Market strategist Rekt Capital cautioned that Bitcoin faces the possibility of extending its pattern of descending highs established since October 2025. He pinpointed the 50-week EMA at $77,251 as a crucial level requiring recapture and maintenance. Bitcoin's most recent monthly closure above this level occurred in October 2025.

Below current prices, Glassnode says weakness would first show at the $70,000 short-term holder cost basis. The $62,000 to $65,000 floor sits beneath that, held by the recent buyers who funded the move.

The PCE inflation reading of 3.7% on Wednesday, above the 3.6% consensus, added near-term pressure, with Bitcoin retreating below $78,000 before recovering. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the keynote Friday. Traditional markets including equities and precious metals also declined after the inflation announcement, with gold dropping below $4,600 per ounce.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.