Bitcoin's social media silence masks a $4.3 billion whale distribution and a new buyer class, leaving the market divided.
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Bitcoin holds near $65K as whale distribution hits $4.3B
Bitcoin's social media silence masks a $4.3 billion whale distribution and a new buyer class, leaving the market divided.
Bitcoin held at $64,609 on July 15 as crypto social media chatter fell to a 21-month low, Santiment data shows.
"Low social discussion often points to a less crowded trade, which can create room for a modest move in either direction when attention returns," Santiment said, cautioning that macro uncertainty and cautious risk appetite are working against Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant data shows wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC distributed roughly 67,000 Bitcoin on July 13, the cohort's strongest selling since February. At current prices, that represents about $4.3 billion exiting those wallets in a single day, equal to roughly 0.33 percent of Bitcoin's circulating supply. A separate CryptoQuant analysis found newer whale wallets have continued accumulating, suggesting supply is rotating between large-holder cohorts rather than leaving the market entirely.
The divergence between whale cohorts leaves Bitcoin's next move dependent on whether new buyers can absorb the supply exiting older holders' wallets. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin has spent about five months below both the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200 and the True Market Mean near $76,600, the two levels that would confirm a completed recovery.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $197.4 million during the week of July 6-10, according to Farside Investors, a positive stretch that reversed sharply on July 13 with roughly $424.7 million in net outflows. Glassnode's tracking puts 30-day ETF net flows in negative territory, with daily trading volume running $650 million to $950 million, about 80 percent below the October 2025 peak. Measured against the $4.3 billion the 100-to-1,000 BTC cohort moved in a single day, that week's entire ETF inflow was roughly 22 times smaller.
Long-term holder realized losses peaked near $280 million a day, the highest since December 2022, evidence of how far capitulation has already run — though the pace remains too elevated to call the process finished.
Macro Crosscurrents
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent at its June 17 meeting, while June CPI cooled to 3.5 percent year over year from 4.2 percent in May, easing some of the pressure on risk assets. US M2 supply has risen to a record $22.8 trillion, though the Fed's balance sheet sits roughly $2 trillion below its 2023 peak, leaving Bitcoin caught between expanding broad liquidity and a still-restrictive real-yield environment.
Citi's July forecast cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000, citing weak investor appetite and stalled US crypto legislation, with a bear case of $53,000 under recessionary conditions, according to Reuters.
If new-whale accumulation persists, distribution from the 100-to-1,000 BTC cohort cools, and ETF flows turn positive for several consecutive weeks, Bitcoin has a path toward reclaiming both the $72,200 cost basis and the $76,600 True Market Mean. If distribution continues and ETF flows revert to negative, Bitcoin risks losing the low-$60,000s entirely.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
