Bitcoin-gold correlation hits 0.50 as BTC holds near $80,000

Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold climbed above 0.50, the highest since 2020, as the token held near $80,000.

"In truly significant situations, Bitcoin can act as 'digital gold.' Now, this factor might start to matter for the market," Andre Dragos, head of research at Bitwise, said in a memo published this week. Dragos tied the shift to macro events in August, when the US Treasury expanded purchases of longer-dated securities. Bitcoin rose 22.4% in the week after the intervention — its largest weekly gain since March 2024 — while gold gained about 5% and stocks fell.

Grayscale's analysis shows the same decoupling from another angle. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from above 60% to roughly 33%, while its correlation with gold has climbed from barely above zero at the start of the year to more than 50%. Much of the convergence reflects gold becoming more volatile: Bitcoin's 90-day volatility stands at 36.2% versus 25.3% for gold, a ratio of 1.43 times that has held below two for 177 consecutive sessions, according to Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston. From 2020 through 2025, there were only 82 such days combined.

The relationship faced its first stress test this week. Gold slid more than 7% from its Aug. 25 peak near $4,696 to about $4,342 on Sept. 1 as the US 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.8% and traders repriced Federal Reserve policy, pricing in a more than 60% probability of a September rate increase before Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments pared those bets. Bitcoin absorbed the same tightening shock with less damage, holding around $77,000 before rebounding above $80,000. On Sept. 3, gold jumped about 2% toward $4,473 as yields eased, while Bitcoin touched an intraday high above $81,000.

Crypto-specific flows have cushioned the token. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $101.2 million on Sept. 2 after posting $236.5 million of outflows a day earlier, and have still attracted more than $3 billion over the past 30 days, according to data cited by Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee. Moderate perpetual funding and reduced leverage after recent liquidations have provided additional support, Lee said.

The macro backdrop is reviving the currency-debasement trade that last peaked after the COVID crisis. US federal debt has moved above $40 trillion, and Robert Mitchnick, head of BlackRock's digital assets division, said in August that concerns over US debt and deficits are driving investors toward both Bitcoin and gold. Dragos noted the precious metals market is roughly $30 trillion, far larger than the capital that has historically moved Bitcoin's price.

Whether the correlation persists depends on how each market transmits the same macro shock. Gold remains acutely sensitive to real yields, the dollar and energy-driven inflation expectations, while Bitcoin's performance also reflects leverage, funding and ETF flows. A sustained hold around $76,000 to $77,000 alongside contained funding would strengthen the case that spot buyers underpin the market, Lee said, while persistent ETF redemptions, a stronger dollar or another jump in rate expectations would test that support.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.