Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's weekly chart is flashing two bullish reversal signals that point to a potential bottom near $57,000 and a measured target of $123,000.
Bitcoin traded near $65,970 on July 22 after rebounding from a falling wedge that has defined its price action since peaking near $123,000 in H2 2025.
"The narrowing range between converging trendlines indicates sellers are losing control, while the weekly RSI forming a higher low against a lower price confirms momentum is shifting," Yashu Gola, a crypto journalist and technical analyst, said.
The wedge shows lower highs near $120,000, $95,000 and $80,000, while downside moves have contracted. Bitcoin recently bounced from the $56,000 to $59,000 region, where the wedge's lower trendline provided support. The weekly relative strength index has recovered to around 41.5, still below the neutral 50 level but holding above its prior trough near oversold territory — a bullish divergence that suggests selling momentum is exhausted.
A decisive weekly close above the wedge's upper trendline near $72,000 to $75,000 would confirm the breakout, opening a path toward $95,200 and eventually the measured target of $123,000 — roughly 85% above current levels. Failure to hold support could send Bitcoin back toward $57,000 to $59,000, with a close below $55,000 invalidating the pattern and exposing the $51,000 area.
Shorter-term setups align with the bullish thesis
On the 6-hour chart, trader Josh Olszewicz identified an inverse head and shoulders pattern working in tandem with the falling wedge breakout. Bitcoin has already broken above the descending resistance line of the multi-week wedge, with the technical target sitting between the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $72,669 and the 2.0 Fibonacci level at $76,698.
The $65,000 zone remains a key battleground. James Stanley, a strategist, noted that while this level has consistently attracted sellers on recent tests, the bearish response is weakening. Higher lows forming in July are setting the stage for an ascending triangle, a classic bullish formation.
Macro crosscurrents and the gold divergence
The bullish technical picture faces headwinds from the macro environment. Gold has surged 64% year-to-date to trade above $4,300, while Bitcoin remains below $100,000. The gold-to-Bitcoin ratio has broken above the 0.05 level, confirming a rotation into safe-haven assets as US labor market data softens and geopolitical tensions persist.
Muhammad Umair, a financial analyst and founder of Gold Predictors, said the divergence between gold and Bitcoin is likely to widen through early 2026. He pointed to a bear flag pattern on Bitcoin's weekly chart that could drive prices toward $75,000 if support at $85,000 breaks.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expects Bitcoin to consolidate between $60,000 and $80,000 for the remainder of the year, with a move toward $100,000 possible if regulatory clarity, macroeconomic tailwinds and renewed demand align.
Strategy, the enterprise software firm led by Michael Saylor, held its Bitcoin position steady last week at 843,775 BTC alongside a $3.2 billion fiat reserve, adding $225 million in cash capital.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
