AST SpaceMobile targets 45 satellites in 2026 as FCC greenlight opens commercial era

AST SpaceMobile has cleared its biggest regulatory hurdle and is racing to deploy enough satellites to turn a decade-old concept into a revenue-generating business by year-end.

AST SpaceMobile Inc. received Federal Communications Commission authorization in May to run commercial satellite-to-cellphone service in the US, clearing the regulatory path for a technology that could extend cellular coverage to the millions of square miles of dead zones terrestrial towers cannot reach.

"This is the moment the concept becomes a product," Abel Avellan, chief executive officer of AST SpaceMobile, said in a statement following the FCC approval. "We are now authorized to connect ordinary smartphones directly from space."

The company launched three more BlueBird satellites in June, bringing its on-orbit fleet to a level that enables intermittent connectivity. AST aims to have roughly 45 satellites circling the globe in 2026, with more than 20 additional units already in production. A constellation of that size would provide continuous coverage — the threshold required to sell the service commercially. The satellites use premium low-band spectrum in coordination with AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc., plus the FirstNet public-safety network that first responders rely on.

AST SpaceMobile trades at a market value in the tens of billions against minimal revenue, reflecting the premium investors place on the direct-to-cell opportunity. The company's path to profitability depends on executing satellite launches on schedule while fending off competition from SpaceX's Starlink Direct to Cell, which has already deployed more than 650 dedicated satellites and signed 35 carrier partners across 32 countries.

The Competitive Gap

SpaceX's connectivity division generated $11.39 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, accounting for about 60 percent of total company revenue, with an operating margin of roughly 39 percent. Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers as of March 2026, up from 2.3 million in 2023. The company's vertically integrated model — building satellites in-house and launching them on its own Falcon 9 rockets — gives it a cost advantage that AST SpaceMobile cannot match. SpaceX launched more than 650 direct-to-cell satellites in 18 months, while AST has launched a handful.

AST's counterweight is its carrier partnerships. AT&T and Verizon, two of the three largest US wireless carriers, have committed to using AST's network to fill coverage gaps rather than building their own satellite infrastructure or switching to Starlink. That gives AST a distribution channel that Starlink, which has begun exploring its own carrier ambitions, cannot easily replicate. In Japan, Rakuten Mobile plans to commercialize AST-based service in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to public statements.

The Dilution Risk

Building a satellite constellation is expensive, and AST has repeatedly raised cash by issuing new shares, diluting existing holders. The company will need additional capital to reach its target of 45 satellites and eventually global coverage, which would require many more launches. Hardware can fail in orbit, launch schedules can slip, and Starlink's head start in both satellite count and carrier relationships means AST is racing against a competitor that already has a working network.

For investors, the calculus comes down to timing. If AST reaches continuous coverage in 2026 and converts its carrier partnerships into recurring revenue, the current valuation could prove cheap relative to the addressable market. If launches slip or Starlink captures the carrier partnerships AST is counting on, the stock faces significant downside from current levels. The next two quarters will determine which path the company takes.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.