Anthropic IPO faces $965B valuation test as traders spot trouble

Wall Street traders detected trouble for Anthropic ahead of its record $965 billion IPO, with whispers of a stake sale and unusual options activity triggering a bearish shift in sentiment across the AI sector.

"From whispers of an Anthropic stake sale to strange options moves, traders sensed trouble and swung into action," the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing market participants familiar with the activity.

Anthropic's revenue run rate tops $65 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter, yet the company remains unprofitable with negative cash flow. The IPO, expected in September or early October, would value the AI developer at $965 billion — the largest in history — and hinges on a massive 2028 revenue forecast that investors are scrutinizing.

The bearish signals carry implications beyond Anthropic. A failed or delayed listing could dent sentiment across the AI sector, where Nvidia has committed up to $105 billion in guarantees for OpenAI's Ohio data center and investors are increasingly selective about which AI firms deserve premium multiples. Anthropic also faces strained relations with the Trump administration and public opposition to data center developments across the U.S., adding regulatory and operational risk to the deal.

The options market activity and stake sale rumors emerged as Anthropic engages with potential investors to bolster confidence in the offering. The company's flagship coding tool, ClaudeCode, has driven adoption, but the valuation debate centers on whether Anthropic can sustain the growth trajectory implied by its 2028 revenue projections.

Revenue run rate vs. valuation gap

At a $965 billion valuation against a $65 billion revenue run rate, Anthropic would trade at roughly 15 times revenue — a multiple that assumes aggressive growth through 2028. The company's unprofitability and negative cash flow mean traditional earnings-based metrics don't apply, forcing investors to rely on forward revenue projections that carry significant execution risk.

Political and operational headwinds

Anthropic's challenges extend beyond market mechanics. The company has faced public opposition to data center developments across the U.S., and its relationship with the Trump administration has been strained — factors that could complicate the regulatory path for the listing. Investors have been questioning the potential impact of these issues on the company's growth, reflecting broader market uncertainty about which AI firms will thrive in the competitive landscape.

The IPO's outcome will serve as a barometer for AI sector valuation discipline. If Anthropic prices at or above $965 billion, it would set a new benchmark for AI company listings, potentially lifting sentiment across AI-related public equities. If the deal faces headwinds, the ripple effects could hit AI infrastructure names and private market valuations, particularly as investors weigh the sustainability of massive capital commitments like Nvidia's $105 billion guarantee for OpenAI's data center buildout.

The listing is expected to proceed in September or early October, with Anthropic actively courting institutional investors. The company's ability to address concerns about its political relationships, data center opposition, and path to profitability will determine whether the record valuation holds or cracks under market pressure.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.