XRP's 50% rally into Ripple's 1 billion token unlock on September 1 faces a supply test that could decide whether the recovery holds or fades.
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XRP's 50% rally faces 1 billion token unlock on September 1
XRP trades at $1.4554 after a 50% rally, but Ripple's 1 billion token unlock on September 1 threatens to add selling pressure to the recovery.
US spot XRP ETFs booked six straight positive sessions from August 18 to 25, lifting net assets from $941.41 million to $1.46 billion, SoSoValue data shows.
The monthly escrow release adds 1 billion XRP to circulating supply, roughly 1.6% of the token's outstanding float. XRP gained 43.7% in the seven days to August 26, the strongest run in the top 10 by market cap, BeInCrypto data shows. The Relative Strength Index reads 76.8, above the 70 threshold that signals overbought momentum.
The unlock lands three weeks before the Senate's September 15 cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, the regulatory event that drove XRP's sharpest gains. If Ripple sells a meaningful share of the 1 billion tokens, XRP risks sliding toward $1.31 support; if it re-locks as in prior cycles, the impact may be muted.
The 1 Billion Token Unlock
Ripple's monthly escrow release on September 1 adds 1 billion XRP to the circulating supply. The release has become routine — Ripple has executed similar unlocks monthly since 2017 — but the timing matters because it lands after a rally that pushed XRP into overbought territory.
The unlock represents roughly 1.6% of XRP's outstanding supply. If Ripple or associated parties sell a portion of the released tokens, the market could see significant downside. If the tokens are re-locked as in prior monthly cycles, the impact may be muted.
Rally Built on Regulatory Hopes
XRP's recovery began August 17 at a cycle low of $0.9877, then climbed about 68% to above $1.66 by August 22 before a flash crash pulled it to $1.44 the same day. The rally coincided with President Donald Trump's crypto policy summit at the White House, where he called on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, and with the Treasury's plan to double long-term bond buybacks to nearly $4 billion.
The Senate votes on the cloture motion for the CLARITY Act on September 15. The bill would place XRP under CFTC oversight, protecting it from further SEC claims. A cloture win needs 60 votes, the same threshold as final passage.
The next three weeks determine whether XRP's recovery is a genuine reversal or a bull trap. If XRP holds above $1.4342 into the September 15 vote, a successful cloture could push it toward $1.5507 and beyond. If the unlock triggers selling and XRP loses $1.4342, the $1.40 shelf and the $1.00 origin of the rally come back into play. The token unlock on September 1 is the first test.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Ripple XRP LIVE Updates Today: 50% Rally In Danger Ahead 1 Billion Token Unlock On Sept. 1[2] Crypto News Today: AlphaPepe Passes $2.5M Presale Milestone as XRP Price Prediction Eyes $3.50 - markets.businessinsider.com[3] Is XRP Bullish Again, or Is This a Relief Rally Before One More Flush?[4] Why Did the XRP Price Rally Beat Every Top-10 Coin Without an Altcoin Season?[5] XRP Hot Streak Cools as Traders Hit a Wall: Where Does It Go Next?
