UBS's forecast of two Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, triggered by strong August jobs data, extends the macro headwind pressuring Bitcoin through December, with September CPI and the FOMC decision as the next test.
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UBS sees two Fed hikes in 2026, extending Bitcoin's macro headwind
UBS reversed to a hawkish stance Sept. 7, forecasting two quarter-point Federal Reserve hikes this year that could keep Bitcoin under pressure through December.
The bank previously expected no policy change in 2026, Reuters reported, citing strong August labor data, hawkish Fed communication and inflation risks from supply bottlenecks.
Employers added 162,000 jobs in August and unemployment held at 4.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, topping the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior 12 months. Futures now price a roughly 58 percent chance of a quarter-point hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, up from 52 percent before the jobs report.
For Bitcoin, the extended horizon matters because higher expected US rates keep Treasury yields supported and raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset through year-end. Bitcoin traded around $79,375 at 14:02 UTC on Sept. 7, with the next test coming from August CPI on Sept. 11 ahead of the FOMC decision.
The jobs report strengthens the labor side of the Fed's policy tradeoff. When hiring holds up, policymakers have more room to focus on inflation and keep conditions restrictive. Governor Christopher Waller described that balance in Sept. 3 remarks, saying continued progress on inflation could justify holding rates steady while a hot August reading could make him consider a hike.
The strength was uneven beneath the headline. Food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs and local government education added 42,000, while information employment fell by 23,000. Even so, the resilience shifts the calculus for the Sept. 15-16 decision, leaving inflation as the next major variable.
UBS's December call extends the tightening horizon beyond the next meeting. Markets respond not only to the immediate decision but to the expected path of rates across several meetings, and financing conditions can tighten before policymakers deliver an increase. Applied to UBS's outlook, the risk for Bitcoin is that restrictive conditions persist through year-end, keeping dollar-denominated interest-bearing assets more attractive.
Bitcoin pays no contractual interest, so when investors can earn more from relatively safe assets, holding it carries a higher opportunity cost. More expensive financing can also make leveraged positions harder to maintain and reduce appetite for fresh capital in risk assets. A 2023 IMF working paper found that Fed tightening reduced a common crypto price factor through weaker risk-taking, a historical relationship that leaves the size of any 2026 response uncertain.
The next scheduled test is August CPI on Sept. 11, ahead of the FOMC meeting. The Fed's communications blackout began Sept. 5 and runs through Sept. 17, so inflation data are the immediate signal. A cooler reading would fit Waller's stated condition for supporting a hold; a hotter one would strengthen the case for restraint while employment remains resilient. The December meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8-9, and the inflation and employment picture could shift substantially before then.
For Bitcoin, the key question is whether incoming data push expected rates higher and whether yields and broader financial conditions follow. Cooler inflation or a less hawkish Fed assessment could ease the pressure, while persistent inflation would give UBS's two-hike outlook more weight, leaving Bitcoin to contend with a less supportive macro backdrop into year-end.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
