XRP open interest hits 3-month low as 1,000% rally pattern repeats

XRP's open interest across major exchanges dropped to $1.2 billion on July 9, the lowest since early April, a contraction that preceded a 1,000% surge in prior market cycles, according to Coinglass data.

Coinglass data shows XRP's open interest contracted 18% from its June peak to $1.2 billion, while funding rates across Binance and Bybit turned neutral — a combination that in prior cycles preceded sharp directional moves rather than continued consolidation.

The setup echoes early 2017, when XRP's open interest compressed to similar lows before the token rallied more than 1,000% over the following months. XRP traded at $1.10 as of 09:00 UTC on July 10, up 1.8% from the prior session, after buyers pushed through resistance near $1.0950-$1.1000 on a late volume surge. The breakout came around 01:00 UTC, when volume jumped to 43.5 million XRP, about 88% above the 24-hour average, carrying the token to an intraday high of $1.1065, CoinGecko data show.

If the pattern repeats, XRP could target the $1.19-$1.23 resistance zone, a level analysts have flagged based on Elliott Wave projections. The immediate test is whether buyers can defend $1.10 as support — a drop below $1.0880 would turn the breakout into another failed range extension and reopen the path toward $1.08.

The low-open-interest setup has historically preceded some of XRP's largest rallies. In 2017, a similar compression was followed by a rally from below $0.01 to above $3.00 over 12 months. While the current market structure differs — XRP now trades on regulated venues with deeper liquidity and an active derivatives market — the pattern of positioning washouts preceding trend reversals has held across multiple cycles, according to Coinglass historical data.

The open interest compression comes as XRP has spent recent sessions consolidating above $1.08, with traders watching whether that base can support a move toward $1.13. The token established higher lows through the July 9 session as buyers defended pullbacks near $1.0880, and the post-breakout hold near $1.1020-$1.1040 suggests momentum may carry toward $1.1065 and then $1.13 if the pattern holds. Ripple's expanding European regulatory footprint under MiCA continues to provide a structural tailwind for institutional interest, though the current move is driven primarily by technical levels and derivatives positioning rather than fundamental news.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.