U.S. natural gas futures edge up 0.7% ahead of storage data

U.S. natural gas futures rose for a second session Wednesday, with the front-month contract settling at $2.924 per million British thermal units, as traders positioned for the smallest weekly storage injection since March.

"Overall, weather patterns lean to the bullish side, although would be more impressive if it was a little hotter over the East in the 6-15 day period," NatGasWeather.com said in a note.

The EIA's weekly inventory report Thursday is expected to show a 44 Bcf injection, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. That would leave the inventory surplus over the five-year average at 184 Bcf, virtually unchanged from 185 Bcf the prior week.

In early trading Thursday, prices slipped 0.9% to $2.878 as soft LNG feedgas flows from terminal maintenance partially offset robust summer cooling demand. Power-sector consumption has underperformed this summer as renewables capture a greater share of supply, NatGasWeather.com said. The contract remains 60.8% below its January high of $7.46 and 20.7% lower year-to-date.

The modest two-day gain follows a prolonged downturn that has seen prices fall more than 60% from the 2026 peak hit in late January, when a cold snap drove heating demand. Since then, mild weather and ample storage have kept prices under pressure, with the April low of $2.523 marking the contract's weakest level in more than a year.

The 44 Bcf injection estimate, if confirmed, would be the smallest weekly build since the week ended March 27, signaling a tightening in the supply-demand balance as summer cooling demand picks up. Still, the storage surplus relative to the five-year average remains elevated at roughly 184 Bcf, suggesting the market is not yet undersupplied.

Traders will watch Thursday's EIA report for confirmation of the injection estimate and for any revisions to the supply-demand outlook. The next catalyst for a sustained move higher would likely require sustained above-normal temperatures across the eastern U.S. in the 11-15 day forecast window, the forecaster said.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.