Texas Instruments faces July 22 earnings with 80.5% beat odds

Texas Instruments heads into July 22 earnings with management guiding Q2 revenue to $5.00 billion to $5.40 billion, a midpoint that implies roughly 8% sequential growth.

"Assuming we do not have another false start, it is very likely we will be at $8 free cash flow per share for 2026," Chief Executive Officer Haviv Ilan told analysts.

The company has beaten revenue estimates in three of the past four quarters. Q1 2026 delivered a 23.15% EPS beat that triggered a 19.43% single-day gain. Polymarket traders now assign an 80.5% probability that Q2 Analog revenue clears $4 billion. The Wall Street consensus price target stands at $298, while the internal AI model target sits at $340.43, with 17 Buy ratings against two Sell ratings.

The two end markets driving the quarter are accelerating rather than fading. Industrial revenue rose more than 30% year over year in Q1, and data center revenue surged roughly 90%. Industrial demand remains 15% below its 2022 peak, suggesting the recovery cycle has room to run before hitting a ceiling. "The combination of a broad portfolio, ability to support the rack and the board, ability to supply at scale, and a geopolitically dependable location is unique and not easy to replicate," Ilan said.

Cash generation has inflected sharply. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow reached $4.4 billion, up from $1.7 billion in 2025. Q1 2026 free cash flow alone jumped 610% year over year as capital spending moderated. Texas Instruments returned $6 billion to shareholders over the trailing twelve months and continues to benefit from CHIPS Act support, including $555 million in direct Q1 funding for the Sherman, Texas 300mm fab.

Shares have risen nearly 69% year to date as of July 13. The guidance raise signals management expects industrial and data center demand to sustain their momentum. Investors will watch the July 22 close for whether Texas Instruments' guide-and-beat pattern holds for a fourth time in five quarters.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.