SpaceX sheds $1 trillion as lockup expiration looms in August

SpaceX has lost more than $1 trillion in market value since its post-IPO peak, and a looming lockup expiration threatens to compound the selloff.

SpaceX shares have plunged 36% from their post-IPO record, erasing roughly $1 trillion in value as the company's first lockup expiration approaches on Aug. 4. The stock closed at $115.26 on July 22, down 25% in a single month and 47% from its record high above $225 set days after the June IPO.

"The lockup cliff is the real story," said Gerelyn Terzo, a financial journalist covering SpaceX for 24/7 Wall St. "The first major unlock is bigger than the entire IPO float."

The company's market capitalization now stands at roughly $1.6 trillion, down from nearly $3 trillion at its peak. Options traders are positioning for further declines, with the March 2027 put-call ratio at 16.13, according to data cited by 24/7 Wall St. Hedgeye estimates the stock has experienced roughly $47 billion per day in market value decay from the top.

The Aug. 4 earnings report will trigger the first wave of lockup expirations, freeing up more than 911.5 million shares worth about $116 billion, according to Investopedia. If the stock fails to rally above $175.50 for five of the 10 trading days through the earnings date, an additional 455.8 million shares could also become eligible for trading on Aug. 6.

The Bull Case That Isn't Holding

SpaceX still launches more than 80% of the world's payload mass to orbit each year and operates roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites across 164 countries. The company carries an AI-adjacent dimension through xAI, pulled deeper into Elon Musk's broader ecosystem. Yet these fundamentals have done little to stem the selling. The stock snapped a seven-day losing streak on July 21 with a 3% rebound, but remains below its $135 IPO price.

Competition and Sentiment Erode

The moat narrative is taking water. Japan successfully landed a reusable rocket prototype, cracking the argument that SpaceX's competition is years away. Reddit sentiment on SPCX has collapsed to a "Very Bearish" score of 12, according to 24/7 Wall St. Polymarket assigned a 96.5% probability to SPCX finishing down on July 22, which it did, and only a 20% chance of closing above $130 by month-end.

What Comes Next

Investors will watch the Aug. 4 earnings report, though the print may matter less than the wave of newly tradable shares hitting a market that just absorbed a 9.22% weekly drop on a constrained float. A reversal would require insiders to publicly extend the lockup or a Starship commercial breakthrough before the earnings date. Legacy aerospace and satellite operators offer cleaner floats and lower expectations by comparison.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.