SpaceX edges Quantinuum as IPO stocks slide 50% from highs

SpaceX and Quantinuum both went public in August 2026 to record demand, yet both stocks have fallen sharply since. SpaceX's 92 percent revenue growth and narrowing losses make it the stronger long-term investment.

Morningstar analysts wrote that SpaceX's IPO was "significantly overvalued" because of unproven technology and massive capital needs, estimating the company is worth $780 billion — less than half its IPO valuation.

SpaceX raised $75 billion at $135 per share, the largest IPO in history, and shares peaked at $168.90 on day one before sliding nearly 50 percent from the post-IPO closing price of $201.80. Quantinuum upsized its offering to $60 per share, raising $1.7 billion, but the stock has fallen to as low as $47.06.

Both companies face structural headwinds from lockup expirations and high valuations, but SpaceX's revenue trajectory and improving operating leverage give it a clearer path to profitability.

Quantinuum's quantum bet carries a 99-times-sales price tag

Quantinuum's Q1 revenue was $5.2 million, down 73 percent from $19.1 million a year earlier, though the company was awarded $100 million by the U.S. government this year in a sign of confidence in its ion-based technology. Its operating loss widened to $77.2 million from $29.9 million, reflecting the heavy research investment required in quantum computing. The company holds over $677 million in cash, which combined with IPO proceeds should sustain operations as it builds sales.

Quantum computing remains a nascent field with limited customer adoption, and wide swings in quarterly revenue are typical as a single large contract can shift results dramatically. Quantinuum faces competition from IBM and other deep-pocketed players in a highly contested space. The company's ion-based approach is one of several competing architectures, and it remains unclear which technology will ultimately dominate commercial quantum computing.

SpaceX's revenue engine and narrowing losses tilt the scale

SpaceX's Q2 revenue rose 92 percent year over year to $7.8 billion, with its AI division contributing $2.6 billion, up nearly 250 percent. The company narrowed its operating loss to $143 million from $970 million a year earlier. However, capital expenditures jumped to $18.4 billion from $2.8 billion, with $15.8 billion going to AI, funded partly through a $25 billion bond issuance.

Historical data suggests the current pullback is typical for large IPOs. Truist data shows large IPOs experienced an average maximum drawdown of 55 percent during their first year as public companies. Apollo research found that every annual IPO cohort from 2019 through 2024 underperformed the broader market over the following three years. Facebook, Uber, CrowdStrike, Palantir, and Coinbase all suffered brutal declines after their debuts before some became strong investments.

SpaceX's lockup expiration on Aug. 6 released up to 20 percent of shares covered by the standard 180-day lockup, potentially flooding the market with approximately 911.5 million shares valued at more than $100 billion. Additional releases continue through December, meaning real price discovery may only now be beginning. The company sold approximately 639 million shares in its IPO, representing only about 5 percent of outstanding stock, which helped create artificial scarcity in early trading.

SpaceX is the first of three "megacap" companies expected to go public this year, with Anthropic and OpenAI having confidentially filed paperwork with the SEC. The wave of mega-IPOs marks a reversal from years of companies staying private longer, but it also means retail investors are increasingly serving as exit liquidity for early backers who captured years of growth before public listing.

SpaceX's P/S ratio of 73 is lower than Quantinuum's 99, and its revenue is growing while its losses narrow. SpaceX's rocket and satellite businesses have proven commercial traction, while quantum computing remains an unproven technology with uncertain commercial adoption. For investors weighing these two recent IPOs, SpaceX's fundamentals make it the better long-term bet, though both stocks face continued volatility as lockups expire and price discovery continues.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.