Senate crypto bill odds crash to 28% as Solana Institute urges action

The Solana Policy Institute is urging Senate leaders to advance the CLARITY Act before recess as odds fall to 28%.

The Solana Policy Institute urged Senate leaders to schedule a CLARITY Act floor vote before the August 8 recess, as prediction market odds for 2026 enactment fell to 28% from an 82% February peak.

"The moment to act is now," the Solana Policy Institute said in its appeal to Senate leadership, warning that further delay would push comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation into the next Congress.

The bill cleared the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025, and advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, 2026, but has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 423 since June 1 without a scheduled cloture vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged the chamber lacks time to complete debate, amendments, and a cloture vote before lawmakers leave Washington, with the pre-recess schedule consumed by a Russia sanctions package and a backlog of judicial nominations. Republicans need approximately 10 Democratic votes to clear the 60-vote cloture threshold.

Failure to secure a floor vote before recess would effectively reset comprehensive US digital asset regulation to the 120th Congress, prolonging uncertainty for exchanges, custodians, and DeFi protocols that had anticipated at least some legislative clarity before year-end. The SEC has separately said it is prepared to establish its own crypto regulations if Congress fails to act, a move that could reshape the regulatory landscape regardless of the bill's fate.

Ethics Dispute and Wall Street Divide Block Bipartisan Consensus

The merged 616-page legislative text, released July 22, includes ethics provisions targeting digital asset transactions by public officials — a direct response to concerns over cryptocurrency business ventures linked to President Trump and his family. Under the amendment, public officials and the president would be prohibited from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, with existing holdings subject to blind trusts or divestment through January 20, 2029.

Seven Democratic senators — Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, and Raphael Warnock — said the revised provisions do not go far enough, demanding stronger consumer protection, illicit finance safeguards, and market integrity measures. New York Attorney General Letitia James separately warned that the framework's centralization of enforcement authority with federal agencies could restrict states from applying their own investor protection laws to digital asset fraud cases.

The bill has drawn public endorsements from BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi, with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon calling it "not perfect" but necessary to create "a level playing field to enhance market stability." JPMorgan Chase has taken an opposing stance, backing changes sought by the banking industry over stablecoin yield provisions that Coinbase and other crypto firms argue would weaken the legislation.

Policy research teams at Galaxy Research, Beacon Policy Advisors, and Stifel have all indicated that the pre-August window represents the last realistic opportunity for passage in 2026. Once the Senate departs for recess, midterm campaign dynamics are expected to make the current legislative vehicle unviable for the remainder of this Congress, shifting attention to administrative actions by the SEC and CFTC and the development of a revised bill in the next session.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.