Republicans are centering their Dallas midterm convention on President Trump despite his job approval sliding to 38 percent, betting his base can offset voter frustration over the economy and Iran war to defend narrow House and Senate majorities that determine the fate of his tax and fiscal agenda.
Republicans are staking their narrow congressional majorities on a president whose job approval has slid to 38 percent, opening a two-day Dallas convention this week built around Donald Trump even as polls show voters souring on his handling of the economy and the Iran war. The strategy, organizers compare to one of Trump's rallies, puts the term-limited president at the center of a campaign to defend a two-seat House cushion and a three-seat Senate margin ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms.
"There's no question the president is uniquely motivating for MAGA voters, but MAGA voters aren't sufficient to win in swing districts or states," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. "Nationalizing an election does not make sense when the president is at 38% job approval."
Trump's approval has drifted lower through his second term, with the New York Times average at 38 percent and RealClearPolitics at 39.6 percent as of Sept. 8, while a Focaldata/Financial Times poll released Sept. 6 put him at a record-low 32 percent. Only 17 percent of respondents approved of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living, against 69 percent who disapproved, as the average U.S. gasoline price reached $4.15 a gallon — nearly $1 higher than a year earlier — and the war in Iran passed the six-month mark. The same survey showed Democrats leading Republicans by seven points on a generic congressional ballot.
The stakes extend beyond the two chambers to the fiscal agenda Trump has run through party-line reconciliation bills, including the signature tax package he signed in 2025. Silver Bulletin's forecast gives Democrats a 52.8 percent chance of winning the Senate and a 52.4 percent chance of a sweep, while Polymarket traders price an 89 percent probability of a Democratic House and a 50 percent chance Democrats take both chambers. A Democratic House would end the trifecta that lets Republicans pass tax and spending measures without Democratic votes, forcing bipartisan compromise on any future fiscal package; a Republican hold would let Trump treat the result as a mandate to extend his agenda through his final two years.
Trump and his advisers argue he remains the party's most dynamic fundraiser and attention-getter, and the convention reflects that bet. The president is scheduled to appear both Wednesday and Thursday nights alongside Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Attorney General Todd Blanche and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with the RNC charging $88,600 for a photo with Trump and the NRCC's lowest-cost lawmaker package set at $25,000 for two tickets. MAGA Inc., the president-aligned super PAC with a $400 million war chest, announced $10 million in spending on the Texas Senate race, where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico, a state legislator who has out-fundraised him while courting moderates and disaffected Republicans.
Yet the strategy carries visible cracks. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who has drawn Trump's ire over voter-eligibility legislation, is not speaking at the event, and some GOP lawmakers and donors are skipping it, citing campaign obligations less than two months before the vote. The last time a president's party faced midterms with approval this low, in 2018, Republicans lost the House by a wide margin — the same chamber configuration Democrats would need to flip just three seats to reclaim. Whether Trump's base can offset that historical drag in swing districts, where independents have turned against him, is the question the convention is designed to answer before voters render their verdict in November.
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