Ethereum stuck below $1,850 as Coinbase Premium stays negative

Ethereum traded at $1,740 on July 8, unable to breach the $1,850 resistance that has capped gains for weeks as the Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative.

"The negative Coinbase Premium shows US-based buyers are not participating in this rally," Jason Wu, on-chain analyst at Edgen, said. "Without a catalyst to push price above the descending trendline, the path of least resistance remains lower."

ETH's Net Taker Volume flipped positive on June 28, driving a 14% rally that briefly reclaimed $1,800. But Open Interest remained flat throughout, indicating the move was spot-driven rather than leveraged speculation — a structure that typically produces more sustainable rallies but has so far failed to attract follow-through. US spot ETH ETFs recorded four consecutive net inflow sessions, per CoinGlass, yet the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed below zero.

The 50-day EMA at $1,806 and the descending trendline near $1,850 form a dual resistance zone ETH must clear to shift the short-term narrative. A failure to hold above $1,741 support opens the door to a retest of $1,524, according to technical analysis. On the weekly chart, ETH confirmed a death cross — its 50-week EMA crossing below the 200-week EMA for the first time in years — a structural signal that has historically coincided with the final stages of bear cycles.

On-chain data paints a mixed picture

The RSI sits at 58, suggesting improving momentum without entering overbought territory, while the MACD lines remain in neutral territory, reflecting indecision among traders. The Estimated Leverage Ratio has not recovered from its June decline, confirming that derivatives traders remain cautious despite the price recovery.

Prediction market traders on Myriad are pricing a 72.3% chance that ETH hits $1,500 before it reaches $3,000, according to the platform's data. The odds flipped in May — before that, the market was closer to 50-50 between the two outcomes.

Weekly death cross adds structural weight

ETH's weekly death cross — the 50-week EMA crossing below the 200-week EMA — represents months of structural deterioration. The daily chart has been in death cross territory since November 2025, when ETH peaked near $4,100 before beginning its extended decline. That bearish structure has now propagated to the weekly frame, a longer-timeframe confirmation that the downtrend is not a short-term blip.

In prior cycles, weekly death crosses on Ethereum have appeared around the final stages of bear markets rather than the middle of them. If that pattern holds, the current pain may be closer to ending than beginning. But the Fibonacci target at $1,500 remains the next major technical reference below current price, and Citi's bear case for ETH sits at $1,094.

The broader crypto market reflects similar stress. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 23, registering extreme fear — a reading that has historically been a contrarian signal. Bitcoin traded at $61,749, down 2.89% for the week, after failing to break resistance in the $64,000 to $65,000 range. The total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH has shed 30% since January, according to CoinMarketCap data.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.