Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin rose toward $175,000 as restored crypto sentiment lifted the market off a recent floor, with selling pressure from Strategy easing.
Brian Vieten of Siebert traced the rebound to a reset in market mood, naming Strategy's Bitcoin sales and Clarity Act uncertainty as the two culprits behind the spring selloff, he said.
The spring decline coincided with Strategy, the software firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, trimming its Bitcoin holdings, adding supply pressure just as the market braced for a possible collapse of the industry's flagship market-structure bill. The Clarity Act, which would divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, stalled when the Senate adjourned for its August recess without a vote.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled a procedural vote for Sept. 15, after the chamber returns, potentially clearing a path to a full floor vote. Whether the rally holds may hinge on that outcome, with many in the industry resigned that the bill is dead in 2026.
The recovery marks a turn from a spring marked by two overlapping pressures. Strategy's selling, which weighed on spot markets, has abated, removing a persistent overhang. At the same time, the market has begun to price in the possibility that the Clarity Act fails without derailing the broader rally — a shift from the uncertainty that fed the selloff.
Industry participants gathered at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole in August voiced pessimism about the bill's chances. "Leading into the midterms, you don't often pass legislation of this magnitude," John Darsie, chief executive of SALT, said. Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, one of two Democrats to vote the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee, is working on a bipartisan compromise on ethics language tied to President Donald Trump and his family's crypto interests.
Even if the bill fails, executives argued that crypto can keep developing under the more accommodating regulatory framework taking shape under Trump. The SEC and CFTC have moved toward looser rules, while the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has signaled a friendlier stance. "We've already seen some contingency planning," said Sunayna Tuteja, former chief innovation officer at the Federal Reserve, pointing to discussions between the SEC and CFTC on rulemaking.
The stakes are high for capital allocation. "If you're looking to deploy capital and invest, and one jurisdiction has an established framework while another like the U.S. may be subject to, every two to four years, rapid and extreme change — hard to allocate capital," said Andrew McCormick, head of institutional and market development at Chainlink Labs. Formal legislation would provide certainty that survives changes in administration.
Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, an OKX board member, warned that a change in control of the House after the midterms could produce years of regulatory conflict. "If you believe there's a change of power, at least in the House, which I do believe that Democrats will win the House, then you're going to have a Democratic Congress overseeing an administration... and that is not a good place to be," Cuomo said.
For Bitcoin, the near-term path hinges on whether the restored sentiment holds through the Sept. 15 vote. A failure of the Clarity Act may no longer be the setback crypto companies once feared, but it would leave the industry without the statutory clarity that many argue is needed to sustain the rally toward $175,000.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
