Bitcoin nears bottom before midterms as bond yields hit 19-year high

Bitcoin fell to $77,000 as U.S. bond yields hit a 19-year high, with on-chain data suggesting the selloff may be nearing exhaustion before the November midterm elections.

"The midterm election cycle has historically coincided with Bitcoin's cycle lows, and the current on-chain structure mirrors those periods," James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.12% on July 30, its highest since 2007, pressuring risk assets globally. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume reached $38.2 billion, above its 7-day average of $31.5 billion, according to CoinGecko. Open interest across BTC futures fell 4.8% to $28.7 billion, while funding rates turned negative at -0.005%, Coinglass data shows — a setup that has preceded bottoms in prior cycles.

The midterms on Nov. 4 represent the next major catalyst. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin could form a floor between $72,000 and $77,000 before a post-election rally, though the 19-year high in bond yields introduces a macro headwind that previous cycles did not face.

Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.52 trillion as of 14:30 UTC, with its dominance rate at 54.7%, according to CoinGecko. The broader crypto market cap fell to $2.78 trillion, down 2.1% on the day.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that short-term holder cost basis sits near $74,200, a level that has acted as support during previous drawdowns. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC rose by 12 addresses in the past week to 1,978, suggesting accumulation by large holders during the dip.

The Fed held rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50% on July 29, with three officials voting to raise, which pushed bond yields higher and reinforced the macro drag on crypto. Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 stood at 0.72, according to CoinMetrics, meaning further equity weakness would likely pressure BTC as well.

Ether fell 2.8% to $3,120.50, tracking Bitcoin's decline, while the broader altcoin market saw $120 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, per Coinglass.

The key level to watch is $72,000, the June low that Bitcoin tested twice and held. A break below that opens the path to $68,000, while resistance sits at $82,000 and then $88,000. The midterm election outcome — and whether the Fed pivots before year-end — will determine which side breaks first.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.