Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's 22.8% weekly surge to $77,129 has former Coinbase research chief David Duong calling for a $100,000 year-end close.
Bitcoin rose 22.8% to $77,129 over the past week, after a $3.1 billion short squeeze and Treasury buyback support lifted it from $62,900.
"Bitcoin will cross $100,000 before the end of the year," David Duong, former head of institutional research at Coinbase, said on the Milk Road Show, adding that his outlook has moved higher in recent weeks.
Duong joins Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, who said his $100,000 year-end forecast "is too low" and now sees a retest of bitcoin's $126,000 record. The rally drew $1.62 billion into US spot bitcoin funds over four sessions to Aug. 21, reversing a week of net outflows, SoSoValue data shows. Kalshi prediction-market traders, however, price bitcoin ending 2026 near $75,000, a slight decline from current levels.
The move traces to the US Treasury's decision to double long-bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, easing pressure on risk assets, and a White House push for Congress to approve the Clarity Act market-structure bill. With federal debt above $40 trillion, Ray Dalio said he fears a debt crisis within three years and advised holding gold and "a bit of bitcoin."
Some traders caution the rally is overextended. "This wasn't an organic rally. It was a classic short squeeze," the trader MARMOT posted on X, noting $3.1 billion in shorts were wiped out. "Right now, retail is FOMO-ing in hard." David Goldstein, a trader posting as WagsCap, said "squeeze fuel is largely spent" and expects the leg to top out in the $85,000-$90,000 zone before fading. The trader Crypto Kit warned against FOMO-driven buying: "What's stopping the market from pulling back 10% from here? Nothing."
Kendrick has flagged $65,500 as the level that needs to hold to confirm the low is in. Resistance sits at $80,000, with a retest of the $126,000 record possible after Oct. 6, he said. On the downside, support is near $70,000-$75,000, a zone thick with retail longs, per chartist ZKChartAnalyst.
The gap between institutional forecasts and prediction-market pricing sets up a volatile final quarter. If bitcoin holds above $68,000, buyers keep control, Naeem Aslam, an analyst, posted on X; a break below $65,500 would reopen the path toward $62,000.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
