Bitcoin 365-day ROI drops to 0.514 as 12-month holders face losses

Bitcoin's 365-day running return on investment fell to 0.514, leaving the trailing 12-month holding period unprofitable as the token trades near $62,900.

The metric, which compares Bitcoin's current price with its level one year earlier, implies a roughly 49 percent negative return for holders who bought in August 2025, according to on-chain analytics. A reading above 1 signals a profitable one-year hold, with 1 marking breakeven.

Bitcoin traded at $62,768 as of 14:30 UTC on Aug. 14, down 1.37 percent over 24 hours with a market cap of about $1.26 trillion, CoinGecko data shows. The token sits below its short-term moving averages between $63,400 and $63,900, while the 100-day average holds at $66,500 and the 200-day at roughly $71,800. The daily relative strength index has dropped to about 42.5, below its signal average of 49 but above oversold territory.

Readings below the 1.0 threshold have historically accompanied Bitcoin's worst stretches, including the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018-2019 and 2022. A recovery above 1.0 would require a sustained price increase that erases a full year of underperformance, not just temporary stabilization.

The current reading is less a buy signal than a description of the market regime. Past cycles show the 365-day ROI can stay below breakeven for months and decline further before Bitcoin establishes a durable recovery.

Bitcoin's slide reflects a drawdown from its record high of $126,173 set on Oct. 6, 2025. The token fell about 18 percent to near $104,000 in October after President Donald Trump announced a 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports, then dropped to a six-month low near $95,000 in November as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded monthly outflows above $2.33 billion, according to Cryptonews data. October also saw the largest single-day liquidation event on record, with more than $19 billion in positions wiped out across roughly 1.6 million traders.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in extreme fear territory, in the mid-teens, while the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, keeping a death-cross signal intact. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see withdrawals in late January, adding to selling pressure.

For long-term holders, the negative annual return marks a sharp reversal from 2025, when Bitcoin crossed $100,000 for the first time in December 2024 and reached successive record highs. Analysts project a modest 2026 recovery, with an average forecast of $64,394, a high of $65,208 and a low of $63,581, according to Cryptonews projections.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.