Weak US Jobs Data Sends Nasdaq Futures Up 0.79%

A softer-than-expected US jobs report lifted stock futures and dragged Treasury yields lower Friday, firming bets on Federal Reserve easing.

US stock futures jumped and Treasury yields slid Friday after July payrolls came in below forecasts, with Nasdaq contracts up 0.79 percent as traders priced in a faster path to Federal Reserve rate cuts.

"Kevin Warsh's ambiguity at the July FOMC means data releases like today's payrolls carry greater risks of an outsized market reaction," ING Bank strategists including Frantisek Taborsky wrote in a note.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.39 percent and Dow Jones contracts added 0.27 percent, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 4.29 basis points to 4.627 percent. The dollar weakened against the yen, with USD/JPY dropping 80 pips to 157.72.

The reaction signals traders read the report as reinforcing the case for easing, after economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast employers added about 80,000 jobs in July. The print follows June's weaker-than-expected gain of 57,000 and comes as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has declined to offer clear forward guidance.

The market's response mirrors the pattern seen in June, when a payroll miss of 57,000 against forecasts near 110,000 sent Bitcoin up 4 percent to near $62,000 and lifted risk assets as traders priced out a near-term hike. That rally faded within weeks after three Fed policymakers dissented in favor of a hike at their latest meeting, and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007.

Friday's move extends a stretch of resilient labor-market data that has kept inflation as the key variable for the Fed's September meeting. Initial jobless claims remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week, a reading that had pointed to a still-tight jobs market before today's report.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook struck a cautious tone this week, noting that "the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium hits some groups, including new entrants, especially hard." She added she would support a rate hike if inflation fails to improve, the same hawkish undertone that cut short June's rally.

The last time payrolls came in this far below consensus was August 2025, when a gain of just 22,000 jobs against forecasts of 75,000 sent Bitcoin near $113,000 on revived rate-cut bets. Whether Friday's reaction holds depends on how the Fed frames the data, with ING still looking for no cuts and dollar softening going forward.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.