Tesla slides 15% as Dan Ives targets $600 with 85% upside

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated his $600 price target on Tesla Inc., implying an 85% gain from the current $380.84, even as the stock extends its 2026 slide.

"Tesla is a physical AI platform whose value is not captured in near-term auto margins," Ives, who holds the most bullish call on Wall Street, said. His thesis rests on Full Self-Driving monetization, Robotaxi networks and Optimus humanoid robot production scaling toward 1 million units per year at Fremont.

Tesla shares trade at $380.84, down 15.3% year to date, versus a 9% gain for the S&P 500. The stock sits below both its 50-day moving average of $409.80 and its 200-day of $417.05, roughly 24% off the 52-week high of $498.83. The forward price-to-earnings multiple stands at 167 times.

The gap between Ives' $600 target and the $425.22 consensus from 47 covering analysts reflects a fundamental disagreement about what Tesla is worth today. Of those analysts, 23 rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, 18 sit at Hold and six rate it Sell or Strong Sell. Bank of America maintains a Buy with a $460 target, while Morningstar calls the stock fairly valued at $450.

Tesla's Q2 earnings, released last week, deepened the divide. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 missed the $0.50 consensus, even as revenue of $28.24 billion beat estimates by more than $2.5 billion on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles. Operating income collapsed 57% year over year to $398 million, with the operating margin compressing to 1%. Free cash flow swung to negative $1.09 billion, though that was better than the negative $3.64 billion the Street had feared.

Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk called 2026 a "massive capex year," with Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja confirming the full-year capital budget at more than $25 billion. Tesla's Robotaxi service now spans seven metro areas, and active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million, up 56% year over year.

Wall Street responded with coordinated target trims while largely holding ratings. Canaccord lowered its target to $410 from $450 with a Buy, citing stagnant margins. Cantor Fitzgerald cut to $485 from $510, keeping Overweight and framing fiscal 2026 as transformational for autonomy and AI. JPMorgan trimmed to $445 from $475, staying Neutral, and flagged softer gross margins from lower regulatory credits and rising interest-rate subvention costs.

The bull case strengthens if Q2 gross margin recovery holds, Robotaxi expands beyond current markets before year-end and AI5 silicon translates into a visible cost advantage, Ives said. The bear case gains traction if Optimus and Cybercab slip into 2027, FSD China approval stalls and energy storage revenue keeps shrinking.

Prediction markets assign just 16% odds that Optimus launches this year and 19% that Tesla runs robotaxis in California by year-end, according to Polymarket data. Those two products explain why Tesla trades at 167 times forward earnings. When timelines slip, the multiple compresses.

The 2026 selloff is company-specific, not sector-wide. Ford Motor Co. has gained 11% year to date and General Motors Co. is down only 6%, outperforming Tesla's 15% decline. GM carries 26% consensus-implied upside to its $95.85 average target, the largest in the legacy auto cohort.

The $425 consensus looks reachable if Tesla delivers on near-term execution, Ives said. The $600 target requires proof that the AI roadmap is real. Investors will watch Q3 delivery numbers and Robotaxi expansion data for the next signal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.