Key Takeaways:
Only three commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the lowest daily count since May, as renewed US-Iran hostilities sever the world's most critical oil chokepoint.
Only three commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the lowest daily transit since May, after Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and a renewed US blockade choked the waterway through which one-fifth of global oil flows.
"The strait has effectively become a military exclusion zone for commercial traffic," said Omar Tariq, a commodities analyst covering energy flows. "Every day the blockade holds, the risk of a sustained supply shock compounds."
Brent crude traded at $84.95 a barrel Friday, down 0.28%, after touching a four-week high of $86.51 earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.19% to $79.45. Before the conflict erupted in February, an average of 138 vessels transited the strait daily, according to global trade intelligence firm Kpler. That figure collapsed to single digits this week after Iran targeted commercial vessels and the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iran-linked shipping.
The disruption threatens to reignite the oil price rally that pushed Brent near $126 a barrel in late April — the highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. US gasoline prices, which stood at a national average of $2.98 a gallon on Feb. 26, have already climbed to $3.94, according to AAA. With Iran threatening to extend the blockade to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait via its Houthi allies, analysts warn oil could surge past $150 a barrel if both chokepoints are severed simultaneously.
Strikes Expand Across the Gulf
The US military struck bridges in Iran's southern Hormozgan province and damaged infrastructure at the strategic Chabahar port during a sixth consecutive night of operations, according to US Central Command. Iran's state news agency IRNA reported at least seven people killed in strikes on bridges in Bandar Khamir, while eight more died and 20 were injured in subsequent overnight attacks Friday.
Iran retaliated by launching missile and drone attacks targeting US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Qatar activated air defenses and reported a child injured by falling missile interception debris. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also claimed it struck a US maritime surveillance radar installation in Oman, according to Iranian state media.
The escalation follows the collapse of a fragile ceasefire that had briefly paused hostilities after both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June. President Donald Trump said the US was "winning big" in Iran and warned of further strikes targeting power plants and bridges unless Tehran returns to negotiations. "Next week it gets really bad for them," Trump told Fox News.
Iran Threatens a Second Chokepoint
The IRGC warned it could target "all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies," shifting attention to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the 18-mile-wide gateway between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. A senior Houthi official said the group was prepared to close the strait in coordination with Iran, warning oil prices could "skyrocket to $200 a barrel."
The Bab el-Mandeb has become increasingly vital as an alternative route since the Strait of Hormuz disruption began. Crude oil and condensate transiting the waterway rose to 5.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.7 million in the same period a year earlier, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Liquefied natural gas flows through the passage also resumed after halting in mid-2025, reaching 2.9 billion cubic feet per day.
If both straits were closed, vessels would be forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and sharply raising shipping costs. The last time the Bab el-Mandeb faced sustained disruption was during the Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping that began in late 2023, which cut traffic through the waterway by more than half before a ceasefire with Israel paused attacks in October 2025.
Energy Markets Brace for Prolonged Disruption
The US State Department approved the potential sale of advanced precision kill weapon systems to Saudi Arabia for an estimated $1.96 billion, with BAE Systems as the principal contractor — a sign Washington is reinforcing Gulf allies as the conflict widens. Iran's foreign ministry said Tehran would not allow US interference in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a "red line."
Iran has continued prioritizing its own merchant vessels through the strait while foreign ships remain backed up or delay voyages, according to the Wall Street Journal, highlighting Tehran's ability to influence traffic through the waterway even under blockade. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker transiting the strait near Oman came under attack Friday, the latest in a series of incidents targeting commercial shipping.
Brent crude futures have gained nearly 8 percent since the renewed hostilities began last week, and options markets are pricing an elevated probability of prices exceeding $100 a barrel within the next month. The next catalyst for prices will be whether mediated talks — which have not formally ended despite the return to fighting — can resume. Trump said Friday he believes diplomacy remains possible, telling Newsmax there is "a good chance" US and Iranian officials could negotiate as early as this weekend.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
