Saudi tankers go dark as Houthi attacks disrupt 70% of exports

Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea are increasingly invisible to tracking systems as tankers disable transponders to avoid Houthi attacks, with analysts confirming all recent Yanbu loadings were conducted "dark."

"Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We're not seeing any loadings with Automatic Identification System on at the moment," said George Morris, analyst at Vortexa.

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe said about 70 percent of Saudi west coast loadings over the past few weeks were dark, with all Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23 involving vessels without continuous AIS coverage. The Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20 and have since claimed attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, Yanbu oil facilities and the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast.

The concealment is clouding visibility into Saudi oil exports, producing widely divergent estimates from ship-tracking firms — data used by the International Energy Agency, OPEC and traders to assess global supply and forecast market trends. Vortexa estimated Yanbu loadings fell to 2.38 million barrels per day in the week beginning Aug. 3 from 2.71 million the prior week, while Kpler estimated a sharper drop to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million.

Sidi Kerir loadings hit record 2.17 million bpd

Tankers entering the Red Sea to load Saudi oil are listing Egypt's Ain Sukhna and the Suez Canal as their destinations instead of Saudi ports. The Sea Majesty approached the Suez Canal this week with a draft indicating it had likely loaded oil inside the Red Sea while sailing dark, with Vortexa and Kpler identifying Yanbu as the probable source. A second tanker, the Maran Thetis, followed a near-identical pattern, idling in the Gulf of Aden before reappearing on tracking systems fully laden.

Egypt's Ain Sukhna operates extensive crude storage and connects to the Sumed Pipeline, which runs approximately 320 kilometers overland to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast. Crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir averaged a record 2.17 million bpd last week, about 50 percent higher than the previous week, with roughly 90 percent of the total volumes Saudi crude, Vortexa's Morris said. Saudi Aramco has progressively shifted a portion of Asia-bound crude flows toward this Mediterranean collection point, offering buyers the option to collect cargoes at Sidi Kerir rather than accepting Red Sea delivery.

Bab al-Mandeb traffic falls to 32 vessels a day

Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea averaged 32 vessels a day last week, down from about 50 a day before the Houthis announced their latest blockade. The corridor had already been affected by two years of sporadic Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, but the July 20 embargo declaration marked the first time the group formally targeted Saudi-linked vessels. War risk insurance premiums have jumped in recent days, and major tanker operator DHT has shifted its sailing strategy.

"That has become a bit more challenging as of late. It's fair to say most of the VLCC loadings, not just ours, have been directed north, northwest now," DHT CEO Svein Moxnes Harfjeld said on an earnings call last week.

The Houthis have threatened to expand attacks to Saudi ships in the northern Red Sea, where Saudi Aramco has diverted more oil cargoes to seek safer routes. If Houthi forces target vessels approaching Ain Sukhna or operating in the northern Red Sea approaches to the Suez Canal, the protective logic of the destination-masking strategy collapses, forcing greater reliance on the Cape of Good Hope route — adding 10 to 14 days per voyage and tightening tanker supply across global markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.