Putin's First Kuril Visit Signals 4-Island Standoff With Japan

Putin's first visit to the disputed Kuril Islands on Thursday has hardened Russia's territorial stance, drawing an official protest from Tokyo and deepening a 170-year standoff that now spans three fronts.

"The Northern Territories are an inherent part of Japan's territory, both historically and under international law," Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said. "President Putin's visit offends the sentiments of the Japanese people and is absolutely unacceptable."

Putin toured the Yasny fish-processing complex, a hospital, and a school on Iturup — the largest of the four southern islands Japan claims — after inspecting Pacific Fleet naval drills off Sakhalin Island. Japan's Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi summoned Russian Ambassador Nikolay Nozdrev to lodge a formal protest, while Moscow's embassy called the complaint "unfounded."

The visit comes as Japan faces coordinated pressure from China, Russia, and North Korea over its plans to boost defense spending and deepen military ties with the United States. Russia has deployed antiship missiles and warplanes to the islands, and Japan's defense ministry this month said the country faces its most severe security challenges in 80 years.

The four islands at the center of the dispute — Iturup (3,185 square kilometers), Kunashir (1,490), Shikotan (250), and the Habomai islets — were seized by Soviet forces in the final days of World War II. Approximately 20,000 Russian citizens now live on the islands, which Japan calls the Northern Territories. The dispute has prevented Moscow and Tokyo from signing a formal peace treaty ending World War II hostilities.

Russia's position has hardened considerably since 2022, when Japan joined Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow designated Japan an "unfriendly state," froze peace treaty negotiations, and revoked visa-free travel for former Japanese residents to visit ancestral graves. Putin said Thursday that Japan had "identified Russia as a main source of threats" and that Moscow was "not threatening Japan."

A Multi-Front Squeeze on Tokyo

The Kuril visit follows a day after North Korea fired a ballistic missile into waters off the Korean Peninsula — on the 81st anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Pyongyang has denounced Japan's expanding defense expenditures as a "transformation into a war state" and has supplied troops and artillery shells to support Russia's war in Ukraine.

China has also escalated pressure. After Takaichi's remark last year that Japan could be drawn into any conflict over Taiwan, Beijing canceled tourist flights to Japan and throttled Japanese firms' access to critical minerals used in manufacturing. Chinese officials have accused Japan of rekindling militarism, a charge echoed by North Korea and Russia.

"The language is very similar," said James Brown, an expert in Japan-Russia relations at Temple University in Tokyo. "It does seem to be about deliberately making common cause with China."

Why Moscow Won't Yield

Russia's refusal to consider ceding the southern islands is driven by military and security imperatives. The Sea of Okhotsk serves as a strategic "bastion" for Russia's Pacific Fleet, which operates nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines there. The Kuril arc forms a defensive barrier enclosing this sea, and the deep-water channels between the southern islands remain ice-free year-round, allowing Russian warships to deploy directly into the North Pacific.

Moscow has also transformed the South Kurils into heavily militarized outposts, deploying antiship missiles, warplanes, and radar installations. Russian security planners have long worried that if any islands were returned to Japan, Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty could allow Washington to deploy military assets onto former Russian territory.

The islands also hold substantial economic value. The convergence of cold and warm ocean currents creates rich fishing grounds supporting pink salmon, pollack, king crab, and kelp. Iturup's Mount Kudriavy contains one of the world's few commercially viable deposits of rhenium, a rare metal essential for jet engine superalloys.

The 1956 Joint Declaration offered to transfer Shikotan and the Habomai islets to Japan upon conclusion of a peace treaty, but the offer was withdrawn during the Cold War. Shinzo Abe's 2016-2019 diplomatic push with Putin stalled over Moscow's concerns about the US-Japan alliance and Russia's 2020 constitutional amendments banning the cession of any Russian territory.

The visit comes two days before Japan marks 81 years since its surrender ended World War II. With Russia's constitutional ban on territorial cession, the Abe-era framework dead, and Moscow's deepening alignment with Beijing and Pyongyang, the prospects for resolving the dispute appear more distant than at any point since the Cold War. For Japanese defense contractors and regional markets, the escalation reinforces a security environment that Japan's defense ministry describes as the most severe in 80 years.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.