Key Takeaways
OpenAI's decision to push its initial public offering to 2027 has created a clash between CEO Sam Altman's insistence on a $1 trillion valuation and SoftBank's need to repay a $40 billion loan by March of that year.
The ChatGPT creator confidentially filed its S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission last month but is now weighing whether to delay the listing, according to people familiar with the matter. Advisors presented two paths: go public this year at a valuation below $1 trillion, or wait until 2027 when the company could better justify a 10-figure price tag. Altman has chosen the latter.
"The delay gives OpenAI breathing room to prove its business model can support a trillion-dollar valuation, but it creates a ticking clock for SoftBank," said Tom Brennan, an IPO and M&A analyst at Edgen. "A $40 billion bridge loan coming due in the same window as the delayed IPO is a structural risk that the market hasn't fully priced."
SoftBank took out the bridge loan to support its investment in OpenAI, with repayment required by March 25, 2027. The original assumption was that OpenAI would go public this year, allowing the Japanese conglomerate to cash out and repay the debt. That timeline has now collapsed.
OpenAI raised approximately $122 billion in primary capital at an $852 billion valuation in a funding round anchored by Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank. The company generates an estimated $2 billion in monthly revenue with more than 900 million weekly users, and enterprise clients account for more than 40 percent of revenue. Yet its operating losses are widening faster than revenue growth — the company booked a nearly $21 billion operating loss in 2025, even as revenue tripled from 2024.
The financial strain has prompted operational shifts. OpenAI deprecated its video-generation app Sora in April and has redirected resources toward Codex, its AI code generator, and enterprise sales. The company also completed a recapitalization into OpenAI Group PBC, a public benefit corporation controlled by the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation.
The delay opens the door for rival Anthropic, which reached a $965 billion valuation in private markets this spring — ahead of OpenAI's $852 billion. If Anthropic goes public first, it would set the valuation benchmarks and key performance metrics that investors use to judge both companies, according to Lise Buyer, founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group.
For SoftBank, the math is unforgiving. The $40 billion loan matures in March 2027, and if OpenAI remains private, the holding company must find alternative sources of repayment — potentially through asset sales or refinancing. A forced liquidation of SoftBank's portfolio holdings could ripple through tech markets, given the conglomerate's stakes in companies including Arm Holdings, ByteDance, and multiple AI startups.
SpaceX's historic IPO last month, which valued the company at $1.77 trillion, may have been the catalyst that convinced Altman that waiting for a higher price was worth the risk. But SpaceX was profitable at the time of its listing. OpenAI, by contrast, is burning cash at a rate that makes its $1 trillion target a bet on future profitability rather than current performance.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
