NYDIG warns Bitcoin could drop to $38,000 as bear pattern deepens

NYDIG's Q2 2026 report warns Bitcoin's ongoing correction mirrors the bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022, with a potential floor near $38,000.

Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 by October if the current drawdown follows the pattern of prior bear markets, NYDIG said in a Q2 2026 report published Wednesday. The largest cryptocurrency was recently at $64,809, down nearly 30% year-to-date and about 50% below its October all-time high of $126,080.

"The 2025-2026 drawdown is bringing the four-year cycle narrative back into focus, because the timing and structure increasingly resemble the prior reset years of 2014, 2018 and 2022, even though the path has not matched those drawdowns exactly," NYDIG said in the report.

Bitcoin's year-to-date performance makes it the worst-performing major asset class in 2026, trailing US Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc. The asset's rolling correlation with gold increased during the second quarter, with both assets experiencing sell-offs as the so-called debasement trade lost momentum. Gold fell below $4,500 an ounce as markets priced in a potential hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve toward rate hikes.

If the drawdown matches the 2022 bear market, a cycle low near $38,000 to $39,000 is possible, NYDIG said. The good news: Bitcoin recorded its least volatile year ever in 2025, and some analysts expect this year's correction to be shallower than previous bear markets.

What's driving the divergence

Bitcoin's 2026 slump is driven by supply mechanics rather than risk sentiment, according to NYDIG. The asset has historically moved with tech stocks, but 2026 has broken that correlation: AI-related equities have soared while crypto markets slumped. The S&P 500 rose about 15% in the second quarter to near record highs, while Bitcoin remained trapped between $61,000 and $73,000, unable to breach the $80,000 resistance level.

Institutional demand has provided some support. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT, has grown to approximately $45 billion to $47 billion in assets under management as of mid-July, with $54 million in inflows on July 7 alone. But crypto-specific selling pressures have weighed on Bitcoin's ability to rally alongside equities.

The regulatory catalyst ahead

NYDIG identified the passage of the CLARITY Act as the most important forward catalyst for the digital asset industry. The market-structure legislation creates a clearer US regulatory regime that would benefit the entire industry, though NYDIG noted its direct price impact on Bitcoin may be less significant than for altcoins and crypto equities.

Bitcoin traded at $64,099 as of 11:46 UTC on July 15, down 0.79% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The next key test for the asset will be whether it can hold support near $61,000 or break higher toward the $73,000 resistance zone, with the Federal Reserve's July policy decision and upcoming PCE data likely to set the near-term direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.