Key Takeaways:
Nike closed at $39.09 on Monday, its weakest since September 2014, down 78% from its 2021 record — a deeper slide than Bitcoin's 50% drawdown from its peak.
"No hints yet that revenues can turn positive in the foreseeable future," said Michael Binetti, analyst at Evercore ISI.
Bitcoin traded near $64,325 on Monday, up 2% in 24 hours, roughly 50% below its record of $126,080 set October 6, 2025, per CoinGecko. Bitcoin gave up half its value in 10 months; Nike has been sliding for 57. Nike's peak value was near $255 billion; it is now worth about $58 billion.
The decline runs through a bull market in US equities. Nike is a Dow Jones Industrial Average component — investors buy that index for safety. First-quarter results are due in late September.
Nike lost 4.03% on Monday, nearly 80% below its record close of $169.74 set November 5, 2021. The stock is down 38% year to date and was the worst performer in the Dow on Monday. Bitcoin's fall is the smaller one — about 50% below its record, or roughly half of Nike's decline.
The years erased matter more than the speed. Bitcoin is trading back at levels last seen in 2024. Nike is trading back at 2014 prices. Bitcoin at least has a cycle to blame. Nike does not — its decline runs through a bull market in US equities.
The digital detour comes with a date. On December 13, 2021, five weeks after that record close, Nike bought RTFKT, a small studio that sold sneakers and avatars existing only as NFTs on Ethereum. Then-CEO John Donahoe sold the deal as proof Nike could own digital culture.
"This acquisition is another step that accelerates Nike's digital transformation and allows us to serve athletes and creators at the intersection of sport, creativity, gaming and culture," Donahoe said in the company's December 2021 release.
Nike shut the RTFKT studio in early 2025. Collectors then sued for $5 million, arguing the company had sold unregistered securities and walked away. The purchase marked the top of Nike's own stock.
Elliott Hill returned as chief executive in October 2024 after 32 years at Nike. Almost two years on, the numbers have not turned. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $46.4 billion, flat as reported and 2% lower currency-neutral. Earnings slipped 3% to $2.10 a share.
The mix is the problem. Wholesale rose 6% to $27.5 billion, while Nike Direct — its own stores and apps — fell 6% to $17.7 billion. Direct sales earn more per shoe, so the profitable channel is the shrinking one. Converse dropped 31% to $1.2 billion. Greater China revenue fell 11% to $5.85 billion, and profit in the region fell 20% to $1.28 billion.
The fourth-quarter gross margin of 49.2% looked like a win. However, $986 million of expected tariff refunds were delivered. Strip that out, and margins barely moved. UBS said secondary-market prices for Nike and Jordan footwear weakened year over year in July, with Nike brand shoe prices down 2.9% and Jordan down 2.8%, per UBS Evidence Lab data.
Monday brought one more twist. David Denton started as Nike's chief financial officer on the same day the stock hit its 12-year low. Matthew Friend, his predecessor, leaves September 4. Wall Street still expects a bounce — the average target is $50.66, roughly 30% above Monday's close, per Stock Analysis data. JPMorgan sits lowest at $40, and Nike closed below even that. The dividend pays $1.64 per year, yielding over 4%.
Bitcoin holders spent a decade hearing that their asset was reckless. Nike holders bought the safe label and are 78% poorer since 2021. The question of which chart belonged to the speculative asset now has a data-driven answer.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
