Iran denies nuclear talks with US as oil surges past $81

Iran denied seeking nuclear talks with the US over the past 17 days, directly contradicting President Trump's claim of active negotiations and sending Brent crude above $81 a barrel on renewed geopolitical risk.

"Iran has not sought dialogue with the US in the past 16 to 17 days," the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported, citing Iranian officials. The report said Washington had sent messages through Oman promising not to attack.

WTI crude jumped 73 cents to $78.41 a barrel within five minutes of the report, while Brent climbed to $81.31, as traders priced in the risk of prolonged confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 21 percent of global oil trade. The denial came a day after Trump told reporters Iran was "negotiating a deal" and pleading to avoid a blockade.

The standoff leaves the Trump administration with a choice between pursuing a diplomatic off-ramp through Omani and Qatari mediators or escalating economic pressure through sanctions that have already targeted more than 1,000 individuals, vessels and aircraft. A senior US official told Axios that Iran is "more scared of Treasury than the War Department," arguing that financial pressure could inflict more lasting damage than the 13 days of US strikes that ended last week.

Sanctions vs. Diplomacy

The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 entities under its renewed maximum-pressure campaign targeting Iran's oil exports, financial networks and shipping sectors. US officials believe the economic squeeze is working — intelligence reports indicate Iran is struggling to pay its regional fighters and facing gasoline shortages despite being a major oil producer, according to Axios.

Iran earned an estimated $23 billion in oil revenue during the first half of 2026, exceeding budget projections, according to analyst Brett Erickson, who argued that "economic warfare is a fundamentally broken approach to the Iran War." Tehran is seeking guarantees against future US attacks, access to frozen assets and sanctions relief, while Trump opposes offering concessions and insists Iran surrender its remaining nuclear material, the Axios report said.

Strait of Hormuz at the Center

Mediators from Oman, Qatar and Pakistan are working to turn the pause in US strikes into a lasting ceasefire. One proposal would give Iran and Oman a role in managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, modeled on the framework used for the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, according to the report. The last time a major power threatened to blockade the strait — during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s — oil prices spiked more than 50 percent over six months as tanker insurance rates surged.

Trump is scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday, with Iran expected to dominate the agenda. Netanyahu has pushed for sustained military pressure, while Trump has increasingly argued that military gains should be converted into diplomatic agreements. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump "prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.