HYPE drops 24% in 30 days as institutional selling pressure mounts

HYPE fell 24% over the past 30 days to $54 as persistent institutional selling from Multicoin Capital and Paradigm weighed on Hyperliquid's native token, on-chain data shows.

"Despite the gains in Hyperliquid's HYPE token this year, it still looks cheap compared to fintech equities," Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, said in a note Tuesday. Grayscale values HYPE using an earnings-per-token method adapted from the earnings-per-share metric used for stocks, since Hyperliquid issues no shares. The firm assumes roughly $1 billion in protocol earnings by 2027, up about 20% from 2025, driven by recovering crypto trading volumes and stablecoin reserve income under Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset framework. At $54, with projected earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 per token, the resulting forward multiple sits at roughly 15x to 18x.

Multicoin Capital unstaked 1.96 million HYPE worth roughly $120 million across three wallets after holding the position staked for nearly two months, later depositing 137,100 HYPE, or about $7.51 million, to Coinbase Prime, Arkham Intelligence data shows. The firm characterized the move as wallet rotation rather than liquidation. Paradigm unstaked around $291 million in HYPE last week, while Bitwise sent an additional 22,463 HYPE, or about $1.23 million, to Coinbase in the same period. Spot HYPE funds posted $8.6 million in outflows last week, their second straight weekly loss, while assets under management fell 18% from a July 10 peak.

The token now trades roughly 29% below its all-time high of $76.67 set in mid-June, with the relative strength index falling to about 34, approaching oversold territory for the first time in weeks. HYPE has lost its 100-day moving average and now sits below the 50-day MA near $57, with the next major support at the 200-day moving average near $50. Trading volume has declined alongside price, showing waning buying conviction rather than aggressive accumulation.

A separate 3.3 million HYPE unstaking completion worth roughly $197.5 million is scheduled for July 30, part of a broader 6.93 million HYPE, or roughly $415.2 million, seven-day unstaking queue tracked by Onchain Lens. Unlike a vesting unlock, which introduces new supply, this event releases already-circulating tokens from a locked staking position into a transferable state. However, countervailing institutional inflows — including a 557,902 HYPE staking deposit from a FalconX-linked wallet and a separate 2.93 million HYPE staking position worth roughly $172 million initiated on July 24 — suggest the market remains two-sided. Hyperliquid's Assistance Fund, which routes roughly 99% of eligible trading fees into open-market HYPE purchases, may also help absorb supply.

Grayscale flagged weaker network revenue growth and faster token supply growth as the main risks to its valuation forecast. The token's ability to hold the $50 to $52 support zone in the coming weeks will determine whether the correction deepens or stabilizes, with a return above the 50-day MA near $57 as the first signal of bullish reversal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.