Hayes urges Trump veto of CLARITY Act as odds hit 18%

Arthur Hayes urged President Trump to veto the CLARITY Act, arguing the market-structure bill that cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 would do nothing for Bitcoin's value and mainly serve Wall Street.

"If Bitcoin and crypto needed regulations to survive, it wouldn't be worth a dime," Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, said at Consensus Miami in May.

Hayes contends that "institutionalizing" Bitcoin through regulation risks centralizing an asset whose value proposition rests on decentralization. His thesis is monetary: Bitcoin's dollar price tracks the supply of fiat currency, not acts of Congress. The bill, formally H.R. 3633, would draw jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets, giving the CFTC oversight of digital commodities while leaving the SEC in charge of digital securities. It passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 but has stalled since clearing the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote in May.

Analysts peg the bill's passage odds at 13-18 percent as of early September, with a cloture vote scheduled for September 15 that requires 60 votes. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that failure this Congress could push the next serious legislative attempt to 2030. Trump, who has earned more than $1.4 billion from crypto-related ventures, convened executives at the White House in August to press for what he called a "fair version" of the Act — leaving his sign-or-veto decision the decisive factor for the US crypto market.

Hayes' position puts him at odds with the industry's most influential voices. Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse said on September 3 that making America the global center of crypto was "within reach," urging policymakers to "finish the job." Coinbase, asset managers and lobby groups have spent years pressing for the statutory framework the CLARITY Act proposes, arguing that clear rules attract institutional capital. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has called legislation "indispensable" for durable rules that a future regulator cannot easily undo.

The philosophical split carries market consequences. XRP, which Ripple has championed, rallied 5 percent when the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill in May, then led a selloff when consideration slipped to September. Bitcoin has advanced during stretches when Trump voiced support for crypto-friendly policy, though Hayes maintains legal frameworks do little for its fundamental value.

The September 15 vote is procedural, not final passage. A "yes" would let the Senate debate the bill's substance; a "no" would not kill it outright but would consume scarce legislative time before the November midterms. Trump's own stake has complicated the ethics provisions that several Democrats want tightened, with reports of his crypto earnings fueling conflict-of-interest concerns.

For investors, the through-line is binary. A veto would leave Bitcoin under the lighter-touch regime Hayes favors, while a signature would lock in SEC-CFTC oversight that exchanges and asset managers have sought for years. Either way, the September 15 cloture vote determines whether the bill even reaches Trump's desk.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.