Gold up 15% in August, near $4,600 as investors weigh entry

Gold traded at $4,590.30 per ounce on the Kitco exchange, down $4.40, after a 15 percent August rally as investors await Fed signals from Jackson Hole.

"The $4,655-$4,700 per ounce range is a key resistance zone," Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com, said. "This is also the area that initiated the most recent sell-off in May."

Support sits at $4,515 per ounce, near the 200-day moving average, with the next level at $4,400, Razaqzada said. The PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, held at 3.7 percent for the 12 months through July 2026. CME FedWatch data shows traders pricing a 30 percent chance of a September rate hike and a 74.2 percent chance by December.

For everyday investors, the question is not timing the market but setting an allocation they can hold long-term. Advisors generally recommend keeping about 5 percent of a portfolio in gold, with exchange-traded funds the most practical vehicle, according to Barron's.

Resistance at $4,655-$4,700 Tests Gold's Rally

Gold's August rally has pushed the metal into a zone where selling pressure could intensify. The $4,655-$4,700 per ounce range marks the area that triggered the May sell-off, and some profit-taking has already emerged as prices returned to this region, Razaqzada said.

The question now is whether selling pressure will build or whether this is a pause before gold resumes its uptrend. Gold has cleared the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and broken through several short-term resistance zones, Razaqzada noted. If prices fall to support levels they just broke through but fail to bounce, it could signal the uptrend is running into problems.

Sellers have not decisively pushed gold below the long-term support level of $4,000 per ounce, which suggests the upward momentum remains intact, Razaqzada said. Concerns about US fiscal policy and the size of public debt continue to support gold demand as a hedge against dollar depreciation, according to Christopher Wong, strategist at OCBC Bank. Gold's 15 percent August gain compares with a roughly 8 percent rise in the S&P 500 over the same period, underscoring the metal's outperformance as a safe-haven asset.

A 5% Allocation, Not Market Timing

For retirement investors, the surge in gold raises a familiar question: is it too late to get in? The answer, according to advisors cited by Barron's, is to avoid timing the market and instead set an asset allocation that matches your risk tolerance and hold it long-term.

Advisors generally recommend keeping about 5 percent of a portfolio in gold, with exchange-traded funds the most practical vehicle for most investors. Michael Cuggino, who manages the Permanent Portfolio, maintains a 20 percent gold allocation as part of a mix of non-correlated assets designed to hold up during market stress.

The approach is to pick an allocation you're comfortable with and rebalance periodically rather than reacting to every market move. If you feel tempted to overhaul your portfolio with every big move, you probably didn't start with the right allocation for your goals and risk tolerance, according to Barron's.

All figures cited above are as of August 28, 2026, and readers should verify against the latest official announcements from the Federal Reserve, CME Group, and other data providers.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.