Key Takeaways:
- COMEX gold futures rise 0.82 percent to $4,473.70 per ounce as rate-hike odds cool
- Treasury doubles long-end buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation
Price snapshot (Aug 19, 14:30 UTC):
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Gold climbs toward $4,500 as Treasury buyback sinks yields
COMEX gold futures climbed 0.82 percent to $4,473.70 per ounce Monday, extending a two-week rally above 8 percent as rate-hike odds cooled and the dollar softened.
"Gold needs to decisively break above $4,400 to confirm that its upward momentum has room to extend further," Justin Lin, an analyst at Global X ETFs, said.
Spot gold gained 0.90 percent to $4,415.99 per ounce. The dollar index slipped 0.03 percent. US July CPI slowed to 3.4 percent year-over-year from 3.5 percent, retail sales fell 0.6 percent month-over-month, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 51 from 55.2, reducing pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
Traders now assign only a 30 percent probability to a September rate hike, down from 47 percent a month ago. The Fed's July meeting minutes, due Wednesday, will offer the next driver for gold's attempt to clear $4,500.
Treasury Doubles Buybacks to $4 Billion
The US Treasury said Wednesday it will double the maximum size of its long-term liquidity-support buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9 through November 4. The move targets nominal coupon securities in the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year sectors.
The announcement came after the 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3 percent, its highest level since 2007. Yields fell sharply after the news, with the 30-year dropping close to 10 basis points to around 5.19 percent. The 10-year yield also moved lower.
"Clearly, the Treasury Secretary has to be mindful of those risks and has made adjustments," Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC, said. "That's why we are now seeing US 30-year Treasury yields down sharply and the dollar cheapening."
$4,400-$4,500 Resistance Zone
Gold futures closed last week at $4,380.40 per ounce, up 0.9 percent for the week. Multiple attempts to settle above $4,400 have failed, and analysts view the $4,400-$4,500 band as critical technical resistance. A decisive breakout could draw momentum traders back; a rejection could send prices toward $4,300 support.
Gold ETF flows are turning positive. Global physical gold ETFs attracted approximately $3 billion in inflows in July, with holdings rising by 23 metric tons to 4,068 tons, reversing June's heavy outflows.
Tim Waterer, an analyst at KCM Trade, said the combination of slowing inflation and a weaker dollar has given gold room to test $4,400 again. However, a push above $4,500 may require additional dollar weakness or a meaningful pullback in energy prices, he said.
The Fed's July 28-29 meeting minutes, due Wednesday, will show how policymakers view inflationary pressures and the likelihood of further tightening. If officials remain concerned about elevated inflation, Treasury yields may struggle to fall further, capping gold's momentum above $4,500.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Gold soars toward $4,500 as Treasury buyback sinks US yields[2] Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Cool, Dollar Softens; Gold Presses Toward $4,400 Level — BigGo Finance[3] U.S. Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Buybacks as Yields Remain Elevated – Eurasia Business News[4] US Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks to $4B as Yields Surge[5] US Treasury will double some bond buy backs: Instant View
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