Gayed names 4 crisis hedges as yen carry trade unwinds

Michael Gayed warns a yen carry trade unwind will trigger a liquidity crisis, naming yen, gold, oil and XRP as the top four crisis hedges.

Markets are approaching a point where regulators will have to "crash stocks to save bonds," Gayed, portfolio manager and founder of The Lead-Lag Report, said in a note to clients.

At the center of Gayed's thesis is a reverse carry trade: investors borrowed cheaply in yen for years to buy US equities, but Bank of Japan rate hikes aimed at defending the currency are now forcing those positions to close. The unwind is being accelerated by an oil shock — rising commodity prices in yen terms are draining Japan's import-dependent economy, Gayed said. To cover the deficit, Tokyo will likely continue dumping US Treasury bonds, putting the Federal Reserve before a choice between saving the equity market or the bond market.

The outcome will determine which assets absorb the shock. Gayed's framework positions gold and long-term Treasuries as the primary safe havens, with XRP functioning as an alternative gateway for international capital fleeing risk. The warning comes as defensive sectors including utilities and REITs have already begun outperforming the broader market in July 2026, a pattern Gayed interprets as the early stages of a broader rotation.

Gold has already been repriced higher on the macro setup Gayed describes. SPDR Gold Shares returned 22.27% over the 12 months through July 2, climbing from $309.25 to $378.13, as the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 75 basis points to a target upper bound of 3.75%. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, has risen every month since July 2025 without a single decline, reaching 130.08 in May 2026. M2 money supply expanded to $23.05 trillion over the same period, up from $22.02 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data.

The 10-year Treasury yield pushed back to 4.48% in recent weeks, near the 92nd percentile of its 12-month range, compressing gold in the short term. GLD fell 8.21% in the month through July 2 before bouncing 2.35% in the past week. Gayed's framework suggests the direction of real yields — the 10-year TIPS yield stands at 2.26% — will determine whether bullion resumes its uptrend.

XRP's Role in the Crisis Framework

Gayed's inclusion of XRP alongside traditional safe havens marks a departure from conventional crisis portfolios. The token, which trades on the XRP Ledger, is evaluated not through its blockchain fundamentals but through the lens of capital flows and international liquidity distribution, Gayed said. In a currency market storm, XRP could function as an alternative gateway capable of rapidly absorbing international capital fleeing risk, he argued.

The warning echoes a broader repricing of safe-haven assets. Silver has moved in parallel with gold, with the iShares Silver Trust up 65.52% over the same 12-month window before pulling back 19.08% in the past month. The entire safe-haven complex has been marked higher as allocators prepare for a regime where the Fed may be forced to choose between stocks and bonds.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.