Exxon, Chevron hit wall in Venezuela as 575,000 barrels flow to US

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. are struggling to secure access to Venezuelan oil fields, with negotiations stalling even as the Trump administration pushes for closer energy ties and Venezuelan crude flows to the US Gulf Coast surge to 575,000 barrels a day.

"The pace of talks has fallen short of what the administration anticipated when it seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in February and took control of the country's oil industry," said Kyle Bertamini, principal analyst at the energy consultancy Enverus.

Venezuelan crude imports to the Gulf Coast have risen from about 110,000 barrels a day in January to 575,000 in June, according to federal data. Texas refineries have received 43 percent of those flows, with another 39 percent going to Louisiana. The surge has helped fill a supply gap created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Israel launched the war with Iran, which choked off shipments from Saudi Arabia and Iraq — suppliers that represented more than 12 percent of Gulf Coast crude imports in 2025.

The delays mean US oil majors may miss the opportunity to lock in the most productive fields before international competitors arrive. Venezuela's production has recovered to about 1 million barrels a day but is expected to plateau at 1.15 million in 2027, far below the 3 million-plus it pumped under Hugo Chavez in the late 1990s. To get to a substantial next wave of production, billions of dollars in capital investment will be required, with analysts at Enverus saying significant new volumes will not come until the early 2030s.

The last time US oil companies had meaningful access to Venezuela's oil fields was before sanctions effectively banned imports in 2019 following Maduro's disputed reelection. At its peak under Chavez, Venezuela produced more than 3 million barrels a day, making it one of the world's top exporters. The country's heavy crude grade is particularly well-suited to Gulf Coast refineries configured to process it — a factor that has driven the rapid increase in imports since the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Several international oil companies, including Chevron, have signed deals with the Venezuelan government to expand operations. But the major US players are finding that translating political momentum into commercial agreements is proving more complex than expected, according to people familiar with the talks. The competition for access comes as global oil markets remain tight, with the Iran conflict removing roughly 3 million barrels a day of supply from the market through the Hormuz chokepoint.

Earthquake Adds Uncertainty to Recovery Timeline

Devastating earthquakes last month that killed more than 5,000 people were concentrated in Venezuela's central coastal region and did not significantly damage oil-producing areas in the east and west, Chevron and other foreign companies said. However, analysts are monitoring whether the government will need to redirect funds from oil revenue toward reconstruction, potentially slowing investment in production capacity.

"If the government of Venezuela has to redirect funds for earthquake relief, then that could affect some production," said Debnil Chowdhury, a refining analyst at S&P Global Energy.

Export revenues from the roughly 1 million barrels a day currently being produced are held in US-controlled accounts. The Council on Foreign Relations estimated that exports of about 1.1 million barrels a day in April generated around $3.7 billion. The Trump administration has not disclosed how those funds have been used, creating uncertainty for companies negotiating production-sharing agreements.

For US oil majors, the stakes are clear. Venezuela holds some of the world's largest proven oil reserves, and securing access now could determine which companies benefit when production eventually ramps up in the 2030s. But with talks dragging and the political situation still evolving, the window of opportunity may be narrowing.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.