Key Takeaways:
Ethereum whale addresses climbed toward 4,850 from roughly 4,750 in early June as institutional demand returned through spot ETFs, data from Glassnode and SoSoValue show.
The accumulation is happening near yearly lows, not at highs — a pattern that separates this cycle from October 2025, when whale counts spiked near ETH's record high and the rally reversed, according to Glassnode data. The 30-day change in whale addresses has stayed positive through most of July, suggesting sustained buying rather than a short-lived spike. Fresh wallets also bought 50,000 ETH in mid-July as the ETH/BTC ratio jumped 6%.
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a third straight week of inflows, adding $103.9 million in the period ending July 24, SoSoValue data show. That followed $84 million and $105 million in the prior two weeks. Still, daily inflows remain in the tens of millions, far below the $600 million to $1 billion days of August 2025. A return of sustained daily outflows would flip this signal back to bearish. The funds did see a $70.6 million outflow on July 24, but the weekly total stayed positive and led all spot crypto ETF products.
A confirmed daily close above $2,000 could open the path toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438, roughly 24% above current levels. A rejection risks a retest of the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1,754 and the broken trendline near $1,600. The price has held above the broken descending trendline for two weeks since the mid-July breakout, which came with futures open interest near $19.8 billion.
Network activity complicates the bullish setup. The 14-day moving average of Ethereum active addresses sits near 400,000, according to Glassnode — far below the February 2026 spike near 800,000 and trailing the June local peak of roughly 460,000. Crowd sentiment has turned deeply bearish, with Santiment's ratio of positive to negative commentary falling to 1.089 on July 24, its third bearish extreme in a month. The previous two troughs preceded ETH rebounds of 14% and 7%.
Other on-chain signals offer support. CryptoQuant said ETH trades roughly 17% below its realized price of $2,304, a zone historically associated with market bottoms. The ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio has fallen to near 0.8 from above 1.5 in August 2025, while Binance reserves dropped from nearly 5 million ETH in mid-2025 to around 3.8 million, leaving fewer coins available to sell.
Volume has declined during the recovery, which fits an accumulation phase but leaves the breakout unconfirmed. Either the whales, the ETFs, and the chart pull the price through $2,000, or ETH revisits the zone that launched this move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
