Key Takeaways:
The CLARITY Act is one clause away from a Senate vote after Trump agreed to ban federal officials from issuing crypto — but who enforces the rules could decide the bill's fate.
President Trump signed off on ethics language over the weekend that would bar the president, vice president and members of Congress from issuing cryptocurrencies while in office, clearing the dispute that had blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 all summer. XRP rose past $1.13 on the news, and the total crypto market added roughly $70 billion in a single day, according to CoinGecko data.
"The president accepted the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history," a White House official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the bill text has not been released. The provision designates the Department of Justice as the sole enforcement authority, leaving state attorneys general out of the process.
Senator Angela Alsobrooks, one of two Democrats who voted the bill out of committee, rejected the enforcement offer as "unserious" because the DOJ reports directly to the president the rules are designed to restrict. Trump's personal lawyer, Todd Blanche, is currently undergoing confirmation to lead the department. Alsobrooks said she would "keep working from that floor to reach an agreement that holds us all accountable," signaling she views the current language as a starting point for further negotiation.
The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to clear the Senate, requiring at least seven Democrats to join the two who have backed it so far. Majority Leader John Thune has not yet scheduled floor time or filed a cloture motion, though he has said he sees a good chance of reaching a bipartisan agreement. Roughly a dozen working days remain before the Senate leaves for recess on Aug. 7, after which the chamber does not return until Sept. 11 — by which point midterm campaigning will dominate the calendar.
The enforcement clause that stalled the bill once before
This same argument collapsed negotiations in June, when Republicans stripped a mechanism that would have let state attorneys general challenge the DOJ for refusing to enforce the rules. Democrats want state AGs included because many are Democrats and stand outside the presidential chain of command. Republicans want them excluded for the same reason.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the bill as being on the "1-yard line" and urged Congress to pass it before the recess. Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz, who has pushed publicly for passage, said talks are down to "word-smithing" around the ethics language. Senator Kevin Cramer said the Senate is "almost there," describing what remains as small details.
Polymarket traders lifted the odds of the bill becoming law this year from about 32% to a peak near 48% on Tuesday before the enforcement dispute pulled them back to around 41%. Galaxy Research puts passage at 50-50.
What passage would mean for XRP and the broader market
XRP won its commodity classification in March, when the SEC and CFTC jointly ruled it is not a security. But that ruling came from the agencies themselves rather than from Congress, meaning a future administration could reverse it. The CLARITY Act would write the classification into federal law, making it permanent.
Our projections estimate up to $8 billion in fresh ETF inflows once that footing is locked in, which would push the XRP price significantly higher. The token's outperformance this week — finishing as the third-best performer among the top 50 coins — came on nothing more than a news report about an ethics clause, with no bill text released and no vote scheduled.
The risk now is that the clock runs out before one clause gets its final wording. Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that a failed push this year likely shoves the next realistic window out to 2030.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
