Key Takeaways:
China's State Council approved a sweeping consumption stimulus plan targeting 60 trillion yuan in retail sales by 2030, the government's most ambitious effort to rebalance the economy away from investment and exports.
China's State Council approved a plan to boost annual retail sales of consumer goods to about 60 trillion yuan ($8.3 trillion) by 2030, deploying fiscal support, income growth measures and deregulation to revive domestic demand as export momentum shows signs of cooling. The "Expanding Consumption 15th Five-Year Plan," published July 2 under Guo Han [2026] No. 66, targets a "significant increase" in the household consumption rate and faster growth in both goods and services spending over the next five years.
"Beijing is moving beyond piecemeal stimulus toward a structural framework that ties consumption targets to concrete policy tools across multiple ministries," said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings. "The 60 trillion yuan target gives local governments a clear benchmark, which has been missing from previous consumption campaigns."
The plan targets 60 trillion yuan in total retail sales of consumer goods by 2030, compared with about 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, implying average annual growth of roughly 3.5%. Per capita service consumption as a share of total spending is targeted to rise steadily, while gaps in consumption between urban and rural areas, regions and income groups are expected to narrow. The plan also calls for "high-quality full employment," faster household income growth matching economic expansion, and stronger social security to support consumer confidence.
The policy framework spans eight priority areas. On services, it calls for expanding elderly care, childcare, healthcare, cultural tourism and sports consumption, including building county-level elderly care networks and a national childcare service system. On goods, it targets housing, automobiles and home appliances — including measures to shift auto purchases "from purchase management to use management" and to support "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green and smart. The plan also promotes digital consumption through "AI plus consumption," expanding smart device offerings and piloting intelligent connected vehicles on public roads.
Fiscal Support and Structural Reforms
The plan commits to increasing direct subsidies to consumers, using central budget investment and local government special bonds to fund consumption infrastructure, and expanding credit support for consumer lending. It also calls for optimizing personal consumption loan subsidy policies and encouraging insurers to develop products for key consumption areas. On the regulatory side, it pledges to clean up "unreasonable restrictive measures" — including easing auto purchase restrictions for families with long-unmet license plate needs and deepening housing provident fund reform to expand its use.
The consumption push comes as China's economy faces headwinds from both external and domestic sources. Exports grew an estimated 18.2% in June from a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll, cooling from 19.4% in May as tariff uncertainty and Middle East conflict-related disruptions weighed on external demand. The trade surplus is forecast to widen to $120.6 billion in June from $105.4 billion in May, but economists warn that front-loading by US retailers ahead of expected tariff hikes may not be sustainable. China's second-quarter GDP data is due July 15, with the government targeting full-year growth of 4.5% to 5%.
The plan also targets green consumption, aiming to expand new energy vehicle sales and promote green home appliances and building materials. That aligns with provincial-level initiatives such as Hainan's plan to raise NEVs' share of its vehicle fleet to 45% by 2030 and ban gasoline car sales entirely that year — a more aggressive target than the national goal of 30% NEV fleet share by 2030 set in the State Council's July 9 carbon-peaking action plan.
The last time Beijing issued a national consumption framework of this scope was the 2022 "Opinions on Accelerating the Recovery and Expansion of Consumption," which lacked binding numerical targets. The inclusion of a specific 60 trillion yuan retail sales goal and a timeline for implementation marks a shift toward measurable outcomes. The plan tasks the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce with monitoring and evaluating implementation, with major policy matters requiring State Council approval.
For global investors, the plan signals that Beijing is prioritizing household consumption as a growth engine at a time when the property downturn, weak consumer confidence and deflationary pressures have constrained domestic demand. The CSI 300 Index has fallen about 8% over the past 12 months as stimulus measures have failed to reignite spending. Whether the new framework can reverse that trend will depend on execution — particularly on income growth, social security reform and the removal of long-standing barriers to household spending.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
