Tehran is rebuilding its missile stockpile from buried facilities, according to US and Middle Eastern officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, undercutting Pentagon assertions that the program was eliminated. The disclosure landed as Brent settled near $108.11 a barrel, and Bank of America lifted its crude and China coal forecasts while recommending PetroChina and Yankuang Energy.
Crude held above $108 a barrel after Tehran restarted work on its missile arsenal from buried plants, a development that erodes Washington's central claim of victory in the six-month war and keeps a supply-risk premium embedded in energy prices.
Iran has been assembling liquid-propellant missiles, which must be fueled shortly before launch, and solid-propellant missiles, which can be stored ready to fire, using stockpiled components, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US and Middle East officials. Output remains below pre-war levels, and Tehran is preparing new underground assembly sites to avoid renewed strikes.
"The Iranians are not rebuilding a missile force from scratch — they are reassembling one from inventory, which is faster, cheaper and much harder to detect," said Tal Inbar, a senior analyst at the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, told the Journal. He estimated Iran likely still holds thousands of ballistic missiles.
Brent futures last traded at $108.11 a barrel after gaining more than 6 percent overnight into Sept. 10 and adding roughly 0.5 percent the following morning, according to AASTOCKS data. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate stood at $103.06. The move extends a rally that has run alongside the conflict and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that normally carries about 20 percent of seaborne oil exports.
The Pentagon's account of the war's results diverges sharply from the Journal's reporting. Defense Department spokesman Sean Parnell said US forces had "destroyed up to 90 percent of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base" and "significantly degraded" Tehran's launch capability. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in April that Iran's missile program was "functionally destroyed."
Crude traders are treating that assessment as incomplete. Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan this week in retaliation for US strikes on five Iranian oil tankers, an attack CBS News reported left one A-10 Thunderbolt missing a wing and lightly damaged about eight F-15 fighters. US forces defending the base launched more than 30 Patriot interceptors, and Central Command said all attempted Revolutionary Guard attacks on US warships failed.
The gap between the two narratives matters for pricing because it determines how long the risk premium persists. If Iran's launch capability were genuinely eliminated, the Hormuz closure would be a logistics problem resolvable by naval escort. If Tehran can still assemble and fire missiles from dispersed underground sites, the closure becomes a durable feature of the oil market, and every escalation headline carries a fresh premium.
Shipping data already reflects the strain. Only seven vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 12 the previous day and half the recent daily average of 14, according to preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters. Some crossings may have occurred with transponders switched off and would not appear in the count.
Goldman Sachs warned that escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea could push Brent above $120 a barrel, CBS reported. President Donald Trump said prices would fall once the US prevails. "Oil will be going down as soon as we win the war with Iran, which is taking place right now," he said.
Bank of America raised its Brent crude and China coal price forecasts and turned bullish on PetroChina (00857.HK) and Yankuang Energy (01171.HK), positioning the two Hong Kong-listed producers as direct beneficiaries of a sustained premium. The call extends the supply-shock trade beyond crude futures into equities, where safe-haven and energy-linked buying has lifted the sector on Middle East escalation headlines.
The historical template is instructive. When Iraq's invasion of Kuwait removed roughly 4.3 million barrels a day of supply in August 1990, Brent doubled to about $36 within three months before retreating as reserves were released and the conflict resolved. The current disruption is smaller in volume but has already lasted longer than that initial price shock, and the absence of a credible off-ramp is what separates the two episodes.
The next test comes from the demand side. The International Energy Agency's monthly oil market report and the US Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory data will show whether high prices are already eroding consumption, which would cap further gains. On the supply side, any decision by OPEC members to unwind voluntary cuts would add barrels into a market currently paying a war premium.
For now, the premium is doing what premiums do: it is pricing a probability, not a certainty. The WSJ report raises the odds that Iran's missile capability survives the war in some form, and that is enough to keep a floor under crude even if Washington's 90 percent figure is accurate on the industrial base it describes.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
